USMNT vs. Japan Prediction: Can Stars and Stripes Bounce Back?

• The USMNT lost 2-0 to South Korea in an international friendly at the weekend

• Japan are a stronger side than the Koreans, so this could be another tough night

• The USMNT are out of form under Mauricio Pochettino ahead of World Cup 2026

USMNT vs. Japan Odds

The odds for USMNT vs. Japan can be found in the odds table below.

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My +105 Pick for USMNT vs. Japan

The USMNT are stuck in a rut and it is hard to see them prevailing against Japan. Another defeat beckons for Mauricio Pochettino’s struggling side.

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Clock Is Ticking and the USA Are Still Struggling for Form

The hope was that the USMNT’s run to the Gold Cup final would instigate a revival ahead of World Cup 2026. The USA finished as runners-up at that tournament despite naming a youthful and experimental roster. It was seen as an acceptable outcome following a poor run of form which had seen the USMNT lose four matches in a row, including two at the CONCACAF Nations League Finals.

However, Mauricio Pochettino’s team were in for a rude awakening in their first match post-Gold Cup. In a friendly against South Korea on Saturday, the USMNT went down to a 2-0 defeat. Goals from Son Heung-min, who now plies his trade in MLS for LA Galaxy, and Lee Dong-gyeong gave the Koreans a healthy lead by half-time. They then held onto their lead after the interval without too much difficulty.

It was another worrying result for the USMNT, who are the main hosts of next summer’s World Cup. Pochettino’s men have now lost six games in 2025, suffering defeats by Panama, Canada, Turkey, Switzerland, Mexico and now South Korea. None of those teams could be termed global heavyweights. They are the sort of opponents that the USMNT would expect to meet in an early knockout round next summer.

The alarm bells are well and truly ringing with just nine months to go before the big kick-off. That might sound like a long time to get things right, but there are only three more international breaks after this one. The USMNT have plenty of things to work on before the tournament gets under way.

“The capacity to be in the game at 2-0 was difficult, against a team that is really good,” Pochettino said. “I think there is a lot to be pleased [about]. Disappointed with the result because you want to win. But I think we need to take the positive things and prepare now the game against Japan that is going to be a similar challenge.”

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Japan Could Be One of the Dark Horses at the World Cup

Japan were also in action at the weekend, drawing 0-0 with Mexico at the Oakland Coliseum. While Japan had the backing of some supporters inside the stadium, it was virtually an away game for Hajime Moriyasu’s men. In the circumstances, a 0-0 tie was a decent result for Japan.

The USA were comfortably beaten by South Korea last time out. The worry is that even the most ardent Korean supporter would acknowledge that Japan are the best team in Asia right now. They breezed through the continent’s World Cup qualification process, winning seven and drawing two of their 10 matches despite being in a tricky group alongside Saudi Arabia, Australia, Indonesia, China and Bahrain.

Japan have never won a World Cup knockout match before, but they will be targeting a run to the latter stages in 2026. A victory over the USA on Tuesday would be a statement of intent ahead of next year’s tournament.

Every member of the Japan squad plays club football in Europe. That is evidence of the quality that runs right throughout their roster. They are a well-coached team too, with Moriyasu having molded Japan into a coherent, balanced outfit.

“Our main goal is to win the World Cup next year,” Moriyasu said earlier this year. “If we think about the goal, and the ultimate goal is to win the World Cup, we need to take each match, each time we prepare for the matches, seriously, step by step. We need to build the strongest team possible towards the World Cup.”

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Another Difficult Night in Store for the USMNT Against Japan

The USMNT have lost five games in a row against teams in the top 25 of the FIFA World Rankings. The Stars and Stripes themselves are 15th in that particular table, although that surely does not accurately reflect their standing within the world game right now. 

Japan, incidentally, are 17th in the rankings. While the USA are still hoping to be the first new winner of the World Cup since Spain in 2010, the Samurai Blue are surely better placed to be the competition’s ninth champion. Indeed, they are potential dark horses for the 48-team event in the USA, Canada and Mexico next summer.

This will be the fourth competitive meeting between these two nations. The USMNT has one win to its name thus far, while Japan has triumphed twice. Supporters of the USMNT are willing their team to draw level in the all-time series on Tuesday. A victory over a team as strong as Japan could be a turning point for Pochettino. But if we analyze the match-up with heads rather than hearts, it is clear that the smart money is on Japan.

Moriyasu resisted the temptation to rotate heavily for this international camp. He instead went with a strong roster, which is bad news for the USA. At their best, Japan are a fluid team with some excellent technical players. Most important of all, the collective is worth more than the sum of its parts.

The same cannot be said for the USMNT right now. With that in mind, go for a Japan triumph in Columbus.

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How to Watch USMNT vs. Japan

• Teams: USMNT vs Japan

• Location: Lower.com Field, Columbus, US.

• Date and Time: Tuesday, September 9, 7:30 PM ET.

• How to Watch: Peacock Premium