Online Baccarat Strategy Guide: Separate Fact from Fiction

Online baccarat strategy is a minefield of misinformation, superstition, and fluff. However, among the proverbial wreckage are some nuggets of information. I’ve sifted through the rubble and tossed out the trash so you don’t have to. Here’s my take on how to beat baccarat online using facts rather than fiction.

The Best Online Baccarat Strategies

Patterns and streaks are mentioned in approximately 80% of the baccarat tips I found online. There are various reasons for this, but it’s usually because people are superstitious, misinformed, or both.

I want you to have accurate information. I don’t want you to base your decisions on theories, superstition, or anything else that will cause you to make mistakes. That’s why I’m going to start by dispelling the myth of baccarat patterns.

The Myth of Baccarat Patterns

Baccarat patterns aren’t a thing. You’re not going to uncover some secret winning baccarat strategy by tracking hands. Streaks occur, but they don’t have any discernible value.

I’ll explain why by getting technical for a moment. There are two scenarios in gambling:

• Independent Events

Independent events don’t impact each other. This is the case in roulette. The result of one spin doesn’t affect the outcome of future spins. Each spin is an independent event.

• Dependent Events

Dependent events have an impact on each other. Take blackjack, for example. Skilled players count cards because the outcome of one hand affects future hands. This is down to something known as card removal. Cards removed from the deck can’t be dealt again. This reduces the odds of making hands in the future. That’s why card counting is an effective blackjack strategy.

Baccarat is played with cards, so card removal occurs. However, as noted by mathematician and gambling expert Michael ‘Wizard of Odds’ Shackleford, the impact of card removal in baccarat is minimal.

The game’s dynamics aren’t the same as blackjack. Because of this, baccarat odds remain relatively static. So, even when you take card removal into consideration, it doesn’t change the odds enough to make a noticeable difference.

That’s why baccarat patterns are a waste of time. It’s best to see every hand as an independent event, even though it’s not strictly true. It’s the best way to think, in my opinion, because it stops you from wasting time looking for baccarat patterns.

Online Baccarat Tips and Tricks

Now that I’ve dispelled the myth that baccarat patterns mean anything, let’s refocus our attention on the facts. The only online baccarat strategy proven to maximize your expected value is betting on the Banker.

It’s a simple but effective tip based on facts rather than fanciful notions of streaks and patterns. The facts can be found in the expected value of baccarat’s three betting options. 

The expected value of each bet is based on the house edge, which is the technical way of saying how much of an advantage the casino has. Here are the important numbers for baccarat’s three main bets:

This table alone shows you that the best strategy for baccarat is betting on the Banker hand. This bet incurs the lowest house edge, which is another way of saying it has a better long-term expected value (EV) than the Player and the Tie bets.

I need to point out that winning Banker bets are subject to a 5% charge. The bet pays 1:1, but the house takes 5% of your profit. Don’t worry, the house edge for Banker bets takes this into account, so it doesn’t change anything. Betting on the Banker is the best way to improve your long-term EV.

Three Quick Online Baccarat Tips

I’ve shown you how to beat baccarat from a mathematical perspective. Before I bring this guide to a conclusion, I want to give you three more baccarat tips. These tips can be used before and during a game:

1. Choose the Right Bet

The right bet is, and always will be, the Banker. Don’t be tempted to deviate from this and choose the Player hand because, over time, you’ll lose more money. I should also stress that Tie bets, and any other side bets, are significantly worse in terms of EV because the house has a bigger edge.

2. Choose the Right Bet Amount

The right bet amount is one that aligns with the size of your bankroll. As a general rule, savvy gamblers never put more than 10% of their bankroll at risk at any time. For clarity, your bankroll is expendable cash. If you lost all of the money in your bankroll (I hope you don’t), it shouldn’t affect your daily life.

Let’s say you’ve got $1,000 to play baccarat with. Based on the 10% rule, you shouldn’t risk more than $100 in a session. Combine this with take-profit and stop-loss limits, and you’ll be well on your way to managing your money like a smart gambler.

3. Choose the Right Games

Some baccarat games are better than others in terms of house edge, betting limits, and payouts. I’ll list some of the best baccarat variants in a moment. For now, here are the conditions that determine whether a game has more or less payout potential:

• Play baccarat games with the lowest house edge. This will typically be traditional baccarat rather than modern variants with novel features.

• It’s rare, but some casinos have lower commission charges on Banker bets. Anything less than 5% reduces the house edge and improves your EV.

• Some land-based casinos pay 9:1 on tie bets. I don’t recommend this bet because of the house edge. However, if you like betting on a tie, do it in games where the payout is 9:1 rather than 8:1.

• Baccarat games with fewer decks have a slightly lower house edge. Most games use eight decks. If you can find games that use six decks, the house edge will be 0.02% lower.

How to Win at Baccarat Every Time

I can’t show you how to beat baccarat every time you play. It isn’t possible, despite what some people will lead you to believe. Pattern tracking is a waste of time, so don’t fall into the trap of making decisions based on superstition or hunches.

The house, as it often does, has an edge in baccarat. Your job is to minimize the casino’s advantage by making smart decisions. That means betting on the Banker and playing the right games.

Top Baccarat Games to Play

There are plenty of baccarat games to choose from at our recommended US online casinos. Some have a better RTP than others, so keep that in mind if you’re trying to achieve the best possible win rate.

Responsible Gambling

I can’t let you go without extolling the virtues of gambling responsibly. I say it all the time, but your bankroll is your lifeline. Look after it, and don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.

This mantra gives you the best shot at enjoying casino games for a long time. It also reduces the chances you’ll run into additional issues, such as mental distress.

Our responsible gambling hub has tons of tips to keep you safe. You can also make use of these resources whenever you need help:

• The National Council on Problem Gambling

• Gamblers Anonymous

• Gam-Anon.org

• GamTalk.org