There’s only one week until the NBA Play-In Tournament begins, and I have five NBA player prop picks prepared for Tuesday’s action.
Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan combined for 80 points in a 10-point road win over the Detroit Pistons to lift the Sacramento Kings to a full game above the 10th-place Dallas Mavericks. Rookie Kel’El Ware also dominated the Philadelphia 76ers to help the Miami Heat’s recent surge continue.
Tuesday’s schedule is loaded with the matchups between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks, the Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder, and more.
Here are my top five NBA player prop bets and a same-game parlay for Tuesday.
Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Celtics vs. Knicks matchup.
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Johnson has been a revelation for the Washington Wizards since he arrived from the Milwaukee Bucks as part of a trade for Khris Middleton and Kyle Kuzma. He averaged 19 points and 33 minutes per game in April, but despite that, he still averaged 2.0 rebounds and went under in five of his last six games.
The Indiana Pacers aren’t hesitant to let the ball fly from deep and are only 23rd in rebounds allowed per game, but Johnson has a strong track record of going under this line. Johnson also had three rebounds when the Wiz faced the Pacers recently on March 27.
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Young is having one of the most underrated seasons in the NBA and averaged 24 points and 11.6 assists per game, but he only shot 33.7 percent from three-point land. He also split the over/under with four and one made three in two contests against the Orlando Magic.
To Young’s credit, he went over in six of his last eight games. That said, the Magic allowed the fewest made threes per game for the year and the third-fewest over the last month of action, and Young went 1-8 from distance the last time he traveled to Orlando for their February 10 matchup.
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The Big Dominican is having a tremendous season, averaging 24.3 points and 12.8 rebounds. That said, the Boston Celtics consistently gave him problems, holding him to 12 or fewer points in two of their three matchups and a 15-point average in all of their matchups.
Towns went over with 24 points on 45 percent shooting the last time they faced off and went over in two of his last three games, but he also dropped 10 and 14 points immediately before that. The Celtics also allowed the fewest points per game to opposing centers and third-fewest points per game overall over the last month of play.
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Williams made his return to action on Sunday against the Toronto Raptors and had 11 points on 80 percent shooting in 24 minutes. While efficient, he went under this line in four straight games and rarely got above 25 minutes, which limits his opportunities to get to the over.
Williams only shot 41.1 percent from the field and 33.9 percent from three and is part of an offense that is devoid of creators and players to attract the attention of opposing defenses. The New Orleans Pelicans are terrible defensively, but the Nets don’t have a system that will allow any of its players to consistently produce.
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Fading Beal is one of the easiest things to do in sports right now. The Phoenix Suns have no chemistry to speak of, Beal went under this line in four straight games, and the Golden State Warriors, their upcoming opponent on Tuesday night, allowed the seventh-fewest points per game over the last month.
Even with Kevin Durant sidelined by an injury, Beal has not been able to step up and provide the scoring support that Devin Booker desperately needs. Beal went over both times he played the Warriors, but the most recent of those was more than two months ago, and he just doesn’t seem interested or engaged anymore.
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-Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-14.5)
Austin Reaves under 4.5 assists: Reaves has been red-hot as a scorer but lost some of his playmaking responsibilities and went under in five of his last eight, including Sunday’s contest with the Thunder.
LeBron James under 6.5 rebounds: Went under in seven of nine games since he returned from a groin injury and only had three rebounds in Sunday’s blowout win over the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ points: Had 26 points on Sunday despite not shooting a single free throw and went over in 20 of his last 21 games.
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