NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Fade Curry, Garland and Take this SGP

Coming off a day in which I nailed an NBA playoffs SGP for +351, I have five player prop picks to share for Tuesday’s games.

For the first time in 25 years in the playoffs, underdogs of at least nine points both won outright as the New York Celtics took down the Boston Celtics in overtime, and Aaron Gordon’s last-gasp three lifted the Denver Nuggets over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Tuesday’s action begins with the Indiana Pacers up 1-0 against the Cleveland Cavaliers and will conclude with Game 1 between the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Pacers vs. Cavaliers and Warriors vs. Timberwolves matchup.

Here are my top five player props for the NBA playoffs today.

Odds for today's NBA prop bets are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 6

Mike Conley Under 5.5 Points (-136) at FanDuel

Conley did not play much of a role in the first round, though he still went over in three of five games and scored eight points in his last outing. He split the over/under against the Warriors during the regular-season series at two apiece and gets to go against a tired defense with just one day of rest.

The Warriors allowed the fourth-fewest points per game during the postseason, although that was heavily influenced by the Houston Rockets’ inefficiency and inability to create in the halfcourt. Anthony Edwards will draw lots of attention, and Conley should be open for at least a few clean looks.

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Stephen Curry Under 26.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel

I’m simply not bullish on Curry. A video of his pre-game warmup drills before Game 7 showed him struggling to hold onto the ball and uncharacteristically airballing a three-pointer, and I believe that thumb issue is really hampering him. He also went under this line in three of the final four games of the first-round series against the Rockets.

The Timberwolves did a number on the Lakers, holding them to the second-fewest points per game (100.4) during their five-game encounter. They have tons of viable defensive options on the perimeter, including Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo, all of whom will be rotated to stay fresh and limit the Chef.

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Andrew Nembhard Over 1.5 Threes (+126) at FanDuel

Nembhard is a career 51.1 percent three-point shooter in the playoffs and made 2.7 attempts on 57.1 percent shooting in these playoffs. He also went 5-6 from three in the first game of the series and went over this line in three straight games going back to Game 4 of the first round.

The Cavaliers have serious injury concerns with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter all banged up heading into Game 2. Indy plays with terrific pace and can create open looks against anybody, much less against a team that could be down three of its five best players.

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Darius Garland Under 18.5 Points (-128) at FanDuel

In the event Garland does play, I find it hard to believe he will be at his best. He hasn’t appeared since Game 2 of the Cavs’ first-round series against the Miami Heat on April 23, though he went over with games of 27 and 21 points in both games in that series.

The Pacers posted a solid 111.2 defensive rating in the playoffs and have been running their opponents to death. Garland is dealing with a toe injury, and the constant movement is just about the worst thing for him—plus, Nembhard and the Pacers’ guards can do a job on the perimeter.

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Evan Mobley Under 9.5 Rebounds (-102) at FanDuel

In the same vein, Mobley is working through an ankle injury that will inevitably be a hindrance against a Pacers team that is in constant motion. He had 10 rebounds in Game 1 of the series but went under in all four games in the first round just before that.

The Pacers have done a better job remaining competitive on the glass, ranking ninth in rebound rate among all playoff teams. They’re confident, whereas Mobley can sometimes appear timid, which I expect to be exaggerated by his new ankle ailment.

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NBA Same-Game Parlay (+311) at FanDuel

-Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves (-7)

• Anthony Edwards 4+ threes: Hit this line in all four regular-season matchups with the Warriors, went over in three of five games in the first round, and is facing a very tired defense.

• Donte DiVincenzo 2+ threes: Went over in two of the last three games, in three of four against the Warriors, and is also facing the same tired defense that allowed the Houston Rockets to shoot 37.4 percent from deep.

• Draymond Green under 8.5 points: Will face the physical defense of Julius Randle, who was excellent on that end in the first round and has the strength to hold Green out of the lane.

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