NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Fade Ant, Back Draymond and this SGP

The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves are going to battle in a standalone primetime matchup in Game 2 on Thursday, and I’ve got my thoughts on the best player prop picks in the matchup.

The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry, who was lost to a hamstring strain in Game 1, while the Timberwolves’ backs are against the wall after giving away home-court advantage to start the series.

Anthony Edwards and company were terrific in the first round, but who will step up to help guide the series back to one apiece?

Here are my best Warriors vs. Timberwolves NBA player prop picks for Game 2 on Thursday.

Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Warriors vs. Timberwolves matchup.

Odds for today's NBA prop bets are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, May 8

Mike Conley Under 5.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel

With respect to Mike Conley, he’s nowhere near the player he once was, and I’m not sure how much of a purpose he serves in this series if he can’t orchestrate the offense and be a reliable pick-and-roll scoring threat. He didn’t manage to score in 22 minutes in Game 1 and went under in three of his last five games, totaling two points in those three unders.

The Warriors played fantastic defense throughout the playoffs and held their opponents to just 102 points per game. I believe that they will play at a slow tempo and take fewer threes without Curry in the lineup, which should lead to fewer possessions and fewer long-rebound, fastbreak opportunities.

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Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 Assists (-158) at FanDuel

Fittingly, the Warriors allowed the third-fewest assists per game (19.5) in the postseason, mirroring their scoring defense. Edwards did a fantastic job diagnosing the Los Angeles Lakers’ defense in the first round, but he only had two assists in 42 minutes in Game 2 and is going to face difficulty moving forward.

The Warriors did a nice job staying attached to him on the perimeter but also closing down his driving lanes by leveraging Draymond Green’s spatial intelligence. Without having to overhelp as many teams do, they should take away his passing lanes and lead him to go under this line again.

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Draymond Green 6+ Assists (+126) at FanDuel

No Curry in the lineup means that Draymond will spend a ton of time being the primary initiator and decision-maker for the Warriors, alongside Jimmy Butler III. He had six assists in Game 1 and has now gone over in two of his last three games, which is a positive sign heading into Thursday’s meeting.

The Timberwolves allowed the second-fewest points per game, yet they’re seventh in assists allowed per game in the playoffs. Green is a great passer and found success delivering the ball following high splits actions in Game 1, which is something that may continue into the rematch.

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Naz Reid Over 12.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel

Reid was really the only Timberwolves player who played well and shot efficiently in Game 1, scoring 19 points on 57.1 percent shooting and 42.9 percent from three. He did not score well in the first round but is a big-time player and has my trust to step up in a must-win game.

As great a defender as Green is, he likely won’t chase Reid onto the perimeter. That should give him opportunities to leverage his combination of size and speed to create open looks while leading the Timberwolves’ reserves. 

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Brandin Podziemski Over 12.5 Points (-118) at FanDuel

I’ll be honest, Podziemski’s recent performances do not inspire much confidence. He scored three points in Game 1 and only went over twice in the entire playoffs in Games 1 and 4 of the first round. He also went 0-3 to the under during the regular-season series with Minnesota.

All that said, he should play heavy minutes without Curry and will be counted on to step up in the absence of his megastar teammate. He went over in his last four games without Curry in the lineup and should come ready to play in Game 2 if he’s anywhere near the player the Warriors hope and believe that he is.

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NBA Same-Game Parlay (+200) at FanDuel

-Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves (-10.5)

• Gary Payton II under 4.5 rebounds: He went over in Game 1, but his usefulness is somewhat tied to playing off of Curry, and I don’t believe he’ll be able to make a large impact in this style of game.

• Jimmy Butler 20+ points: Went over in three straight games and will be the undisputed primary option without Curry on the floor, especially in a playoff context.

• Rudy Gobert 10+ rebounds: Had 11 rebounds in Game 1 and hit this number in three straight games, while the Warriors still don’t play with much size.

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