NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Towns, Draymond Over and a Playoff SGP

The NBA Playoffs are back in full swing on Monday, and I have five player props and a same-game-parlay you want to see before the night begins. 

Sunday’s games saw the Oklahoma City Thunder stave off the Denver Nuggets’ usual clutch-time shenanigans in a brutal defensive slugfest. Then, the Indiana Pacers roared out to a 41-point halftime lead and, later, a 3-1 series advantage over the Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost star player Donovan Mitchell to an ankle injury at halftime. 

Monday’s schedule begins with the New York Knicks hosting the Boston Celtics in Madison Square Garden and concludes with the Minnesota Timberwolves facing the Golden State Warriors on the West Coast.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks and a same-game parlay for the Monday playoffs.

Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Celtics vs. Knicks and Timberwolves vs. Warriors matchup.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, May 12

Jaylen Brown Under 22.5 Points

Brown told the media after Game 3 that he was the most equipped on the Celtics and in the NBA to get to the rim against opposing defenses. That hasn’t stopped him from going under in two of three games in this series or shooting 36.1 percent from the floor and 21.7 percent from three, thanks to OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.

That has been a defensive series, and one that has been defined by its wild second halves. Brown is not in a good rhythm and is going to face a raucous road crowd in Game 4, and his inability to find efficient offense in any of the three games despite his teammates having their moments gives me confidence in his under.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds

He’s yet to score more than 21 points in the series, but Towns also recorded 13, 17, and 15 rebounds across the first three contests. He had 15 in his last game and has been able to use his physicality against the Boston bigs, and his size to rebound against their wings when switched onto the perimeter.

Kristaps Porzingis has been a total non-factor in this series, and Towns is a much more capable rebounder than Boston’s best, Jayson Tatum. I don’t see a reason why this wouldn’t continue to be a defensive battle, so I’d take Town to haul in the loose balls.

Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 Assists

Brunson is not concerned with passing in this series. The Celtics are trusting their guys to play him one-on-one—as they should, given their personnel—and that’s given Brunson opportunities to get into the lane and cook, even if he hasn’t hit his usual level of efficiency.

Brunson monopolizes the big moments, and his teammates aren’t hitting tons of their shots. He went over in back-to-back games but had seven in both of those, and I believe that Boston’s continued willingness to play him straight-up and honor his teammates will lead to him going under.

Jaden McDaniels Under 13.5 Points+Assists

McDaniels has been on a heater in the playoffs, shooting 40 percent from three and 44.4 percent in this series. He also went over this line in two straight games and just scored 15 points on 57.1 percent shooting, yet I see the value on this line.

For starters, McDaniels recorded one or zero assists in four straight games, which adds a bit of wiggle room to this line. I also don’t believe that he will continue to shoot 58 percent from the floor like he has in the playoffs, especially with the elite defense Golden State has played and considering this is a do-or-die matchup for them. 

Draymond Green Over 7.5 Points

Without Stephen Curry available, Green is arguably the most important player that the Warriors have. That’s why it was so devastating for their chances that he fouled out in only 29 minutes in Game 3, a development that I believe will motivate him to come out firing.

Green went under with two points in his last outing, but he went over in four straight games just before that, two of those coming against the Timberwolves. Minnesota also has much more important players like Jimmy Butler and Buddy Hield to guard, which gives Green a license to pick his spots.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+319) at FanDuel

-Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5) at Golden State Warriors

• Julius Randle 6+ assists: Hit this line in every game of the series, had 11 and 12 assists in his last two games.

• Rudy Gobert under 7.5 points: Hasn’t played heavy minutes in the series and, despite going over in two of three, negatively affects Minnesota’s spacing and needs to make free-throws to go over.

• Jimmy Butler 1+ three: Made a three in five straight games and will take more shots without Curry in the lineup and in a desperation game. 

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