NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Back Brunson, Fade Brown, and Take this SGP

The weekend is finally here, and I’ve got the best NBA player props for the Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks Game 6 matchup.

Boston dominated Game 5 at home without Jayson Tatum thanks largely to Derrick White’s 34 points and Jalen Brunson fouling out of the contest. Boston is only a slight underdog on the road and is 9-2 without Tatum this season.

The big news yesterday was that the Denver Nuggets took down the Oklahoma City Thunder to force a road Game 7, which will take place on Sunday. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for 54 points in the win.

Here are my best Celtics vs. Knicks player props for Game 6 of the NBA Playoffs on Friday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, May 16

Derrick White Under 20.5 Points

It’s going to be easy to be White’s over after he came out like a flamethrower in Game 5, and since he went over in back-to-back games. White also shot 45.2 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from three in the series as a whole, which is another point in his favor.

The reality is that the Knicks’ defense was flat-out terrible when it came to defending White and the Celtics for most of Game 5. Without Tatum in the lineup, the Knicks can afford to send more resources his way and increase their pick-up point on the perimeter to keep him corralled and coax him into going under this line.

Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Threes

Brunson, the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year, doesn’t need to wait until the final minutes to make his mark in a closeout game. I expect Brunson to come out firing and to be aggressive in front of his home fans to help avoid a Game 7 and also to do what he has done all year, which is to be there when his team needs big buckets.

Brunson went over in three of five games in the series and shot 39.5 percent from deep on 7.6 attempts per game. He also went over in both home games and shot 43.8 percent from beyond the arc in those matchups, and it should come as no surprise that he’s comfortable in front of his home fans.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds

Towns only had eight rebounds in Game 5, his lowest output of the series, and went under in back-to-back contests. However, he went over in the first three games of the series and still averaged 12.8 rebounds through the first five matchups, which puts him on a strong path to get the over.

Without Tatum and with Kristaps Porzingis struggling to play meaningful minutes, the Celtics are down two of their best rebounders. Towns’ motor comes and goes, but he should get up for this game for a chance to advance to his second straight conference finals against weakened competition.

Jaylen Brown Under 6.5 Assists

Brown had a playoff-high 12 assists in Game 5, but he did not have more than five assists in one game in the series before that and only averaged 3.7 assists per game for the playoffs as a whole. I—and you should—never judge players by their outlier performances, which is why I’m not moved by his last game.

The Knicks’ defense was not where it should’ve been, Boston knocked down an extremely high amount of their shots, and Brown was the secondary ball-handler behind White. This is a clear and obvious regression to the mean spot for Brown, who also should take more shots than anyone without Tatum there.

Mitchell Robinson Over 4.5 Points

Robinson put in a series-high eight points in his last game and went over in three of five games despite shooting 50 percent from the field, a fairly low number for someone with his average shot distance, and a deplorable 44.8 percent from the free-throw line. He also played 23 and 25 minutes in the last two games, his highest totals of the series.

The Knicks have found success on the offensive glass whenever Robinson is in the game, and if the Celtics press the Luke Kornet button again, Robinson should comfortably get more minutes. He just needs to make a couple of free-throws, and he should be able to cash this over.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+339) at FanDuel

-Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves (-11)

•  OG Anunoby 2+ threes: Has been intermittently passive throughout the series but is a trusted player and went 4-8 from three in his last home game.

• Payton Pritchard over 2.5 assists: Had three assists in 39 minutes last game and is going to need to pass the ball since, well, very few Celtics do.

• Luke Kornet under 8.5 points: Scored 10 points last game but went under in the first four games, and this is an obvious sell-high spot.

Win a $5 Wager at FanDuel, Get $200 in Bonus Bets