NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Big Night for Shai, Ant Man to Start Slow

As the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder prepare to clash in the Western Conference Finals, I have a list of my best player prop picks and a same-game parlay for the action.

The Wolves advanced to the final four for the second straight season by beating the Golden State Warriors in five games. They split the season series with OKC 2-2 and went 3-1 against the spread.

The Thunder qualified for the round by beating the Denver Nuggets in seven games, the last of which was a 32-point blowout. They’re 5-1 at home but haven’t seen Minnesota since February.

Before diving deeper into NBA props, be sure to check our predictions for Timberwolves vs. Thunder, game 1.

Let’s take a look at my five best player prop bets and a same-game parlay for Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 1 on Tuesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 20

Anthony Edwards Under 25.5 Points

Ant Man scored 22 points in the closeout game against the Warriors and went under this line in three of five games in the series thanks to Golden State’s stifling defense. He won’t find it any easier in this round, now that OKC has a defensive rating in the playoffs below 102 and allowed the fourth-fewest points per game (104.2).

Edwards went under this line in three of four regular-season matchups with the Thunder, scoring 20, 23, 29, and 17 points. OKC can afford to send extra bodies in his direction because of how talented they are covering space on the back end, which could make his life miserable after six days off.

Rudy Gobert Under 9.5 Rebounds

The French Rejection went under in three of five games in the previous round and averaged 9.4 boards per game after he closed the first round with back-to-back over, most notably his 27/24 Game 5 against the Los Angeles Lakers. He also only had seven boards in his lone matchup with the Thunder.

OKC does an outstanding job playing with pace and space, and Gobert has seen his minutes decrease in the postseason. The Thunder struggle on the boards, but the style of the matchup should force the Wolves to go to their bench early to stay in front of OKC’s guards and wings.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points

At a certain point, even the most staunch critics of Gilgeous-Alexander have to come around and acknowledge what he has done in these playoffs. He went over in back-to-back games to close the previous series and went over in five of his last eight games, including 35 points on 63.2 percent shooting his last time on the court.

Unlike the Timberwolves, the Thunder won’t have their concentration broken by a long layover. Gilgeous-Alexander also went over in three of four matchups and averaged 35 points per game on elite efficiency during the regular season.

Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Threes

McDaniels did not cash the over a single time during the regular season and went under in three of five games in the first and four of five in the second round of the playoffs… So why am I so willing to back his over, you might ask? Allow me to explain.

McDaniels has regularly stepped up when his team needed it throughout the playoffs and averaged 15 points per game against OKC in their head-to-head matchups. Julius Randle’s excellence in these playoffs could force the Thunder to sag off of McDaniels, which would leave him open for rare three-pointers.

Julius Randle Under 4.5 Assists

The Timberwolves showed in Game 1 of the last series that they struggled to come out of the gates firing after a long rest, and that should be amplified by OKC’s incredible defense. While Randle was made by Draymond Green to be a playmaker in the last round, I expect him to be aggressive as a scorer against the switch-heavy and lighter interior of the Thunder.

I like the Thunder to cover the Game 1 spread, which naturally means that the Wolves are going to miss shots. Fewer makes leads to fewer assists, and while I believe Randle is the player to watch in this series, I expect him to reverse his trend and go under this line.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+308) at FanDuel

-Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7.5)

• Alex Caruso under 8.5 points: Cannot be used to front the post like he did in the first round and is facing a much better and more athletic perimeter defense that can better contain him.

• Anthony Edwards 6+ rebounds: Went over in all four regular-season matchups and in seven of 10 playoff games, including his most recent one.

• Naz Reid 10+ points: Split the over/under at five apiece during the playoffs but went over in all four regular-season meetings, scoring 19+ in each.

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