NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Shai, Gobert Under and a Playoff SGP

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are on a crash course in the NBA Playoff yet again, and I have the best player props for their all-important Game 4 showdown.

The Wolves annihilated the Thunder in Game 3 behind 30 points, nine rebounds, and six assists from Anthony Edwards. The bench also showed up after taking the first two games of the series off, bringing the Wolves one win away from tying the series.

The Thunder are coming off of their first truly horrible game of the playoffs. Nobody scored more than 14 points, and they turned the ball over on nearly one in five possessions in the first half.

Let’s jump right into my top five player props and a same-game parlay for Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 on Monday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, May 26

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 Points

Gilgeous-Alexander really struggled to defeat the Timberwolves’ defensive adjustments, primarily moving their defensive pick-up point from 46.9 and 45.5 feet in Games 1 and 2 to 35.0 feet in Game 3. He also shot 37 percent or worse from the field in two of three games in this series en route to going under two of three times.

Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a 14-point dud in the Game 3 blowout loss and has not given the Timberwolves all of the confidence in the world. He is an incredible scorer and the league MVP, but Minnesota has an elite defense and may have just found the key to slowing him down.

Julius Randle over 18.5 Points

I called Randle the most important player on the Timberwolves before the series started. He’s made good on that appointment and has two games with at least 24 points on 60 percent shooting or better, those coming in Games 1 and 3.

Randle had never been to the conference finals in his career, but he’s mostly done an impressive job against the best defense in professional basketball. The Thunder know that they have to show presence to Anthony Edwards, which has often left Randle with space either on the three-point line or to drive a smaller defender into the paint.

Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 Rebounds

Gobert actually has one of the best +/- averages on his team, but he only averaged 4.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in 26.3 minutes per night in the series. He also went under this line in two of three games, including the Game 3 blowout, when he had seven boards in 28 minutes.

There’s a world in which Minnesota’s compact defense continues to stifle Gilgeous-Alexander, and Gobert is needed for his defensive rebounding prowess. However, I believe the Thunder will try to stretch the Minnesota defense as much as they can, which would make Naz Reid the better option in many instances.

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 2.5 Assists

What is the counter to a defense keeping their players lower on the court? Bring the screener further up the floor! Hartenstein is both a terrific screener and an excellent passer for a big man, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see lots of dribble hand-offs, Blind Pig, or Thumb Down actions.

Here comes the scary part: Hartenstein only has two assists in the series and only played 19 minutes in Game 3. Regardless, I’m willing to overlook that knowing his potential as a passer and the natural counters that should come as a result of Minnesota’s defensive adjustments.

Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Threes

The Timberwolves have decided that they’re willing to shrink the boxes and elbows and especially rotate off of Dort. That left him open for a number of looks throughout the series, and he went over this line in each of his last two games.

Dort is not known as a true three-point sniper and is mostly relegated to taking rainbow shots from the corner, but he shot 41.2 percent from range during the regular season and took 6.4 attempts per game in the postseason (while shooting a terrible 29.2 percent). Minnesota’s defensive strategy is clear, and it should work to Dort’s benefit.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+235) at FanDuel

-Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ assists: Went over in all three games in the series, and Minnesota’s compact defense should give him open passes to perimeter shooters.

• Donte DiVincenzo 2+ threes: Went over in five straight games and is willing to take tons of attempts per game, including 12 in Game 1.

• Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 8.5 points: Scored eight, 17, and 12 points in this series and should get consistent minutes if he continues to produce, given the bench’s overall struggles.

Win a $5 Wager at FanDuel, Get $200 in Bonus Bets