NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Haliburton, Towns Over and a Playoff Parlay

The Indiana Pacers have the chance to close out the New York Knicks when they head to the Big Apple leading 3-1 on Thursday, and I’ve got the best player prop picks from the matchup.

Indy is 0-3 in Games 3s and undefeated in all other games in these playoffs. They won the first two games in New York and have had very little trouble executing their offense at an elite level, with Tyrese Haliburton playing an enormous role in that.

The Knicks are struggling to get production with their two stars, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, on the floor at the same time. They’ve proven themselves to be a resilient team, but their backs are against the wall.

Here are my top five player props and a same-game parlay for the Pacers vs. Knicks Game 5 matchup on Thursday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, May 29

Tyrese Haliburton Over 21.5 Points

Haliburton is coming off potentially the best game of his career, in which he went for 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds, and no turnovers. He hit the scoring mark on 47.8 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from three with five made triples, and he’s now averaging 24.3 points per game in the series.

The 25-year-old split the over/under at two games apiece, but he’s extremely confident and knows that he can get his own against this Knicks defense. New York doesn’t have anyone in their starting lineup who’s done a good job knocking him out of his rhythm, and I believe he’ll jump at the opportunity to close out his opponent on the road.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points

I’ve recommended this prop for every game in the series, and that’s not changing. Towns went over in three of four thus far and scored 24 points in back-to-back games, most recently going 53.3 percent from the field and 50 percent from three to add to his 12 rebounds.

Towns averaged 30.3 points on 56.7 percent shooting in three regular-season matchups with Indy, and that level of production and efficiency have not waned in this series. The Pacers found some success doubling him in the post and cross-matching with Aaron Nesmith, but that hasn’t been their primary method of defending him.

Josh Hart Under 0.5 Threes

Hart drilled one of his two three-point attempts in Game 4, bringing him to 2-2 on the over/under in the series. Even with that, he only shot 28.6 percent on 1.8 attempts per game in the series, which leads me to believe that we will see more of the hesitant version of Hart, especially now that he’s coming off the bench.

The Pacers allowed the lowest three-point percentage (35.7) in the conference finals and have been able to hold Hart to 8.5 points per game. There are much bigger scoring threats, especially in an elimination game, and Hart’s reluctance to take open threes should help him go under.

Aaron Nesmith Over 4.5 Rebounds

Aaron Nesmith is the new Caleb Martin when it comes to rising playoff heroes. Everyone remembers his Game 1 heroics, but he’s been incredibly valuable defensively and as a connector throughout the series and the season as a whole.

Nesmith split the over/under at 2-2 and only had three rebounds in Game 4, but he played 32.5 minutes per game and has been active all over the court. If the Knicks’ offense sputters, I trust his hustle and instincts to help him get to the over on this line after he grabbed seven boards in Game 2 and Game 3.

T.J. McConnell Under 3.5 Assists

McConnell only played 15.5 minutes per game in this series and is 3-1 to the under, with the lone expectation coming in Game 2. The bench guard has done a terrific job of quickening the Pacers’ pace when he enters the game, but for all of his fastbreak opportunities and Nash dribbles, he hasn’t directly created many points for his teammates.

The Knicks have been willing to try to match the Pacers’ pace, but their somewhat futile attempts have allowed McConnell to find lots of success as a scorer. That doesn’t matter here though, as I’m trusting the data and willing to follow the trend of him going under.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+201) at FanDuel

-Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-4)

• Jalen Brunson 25+ points: He went over in three of four games and should take a ton of shots with his team’s season on the line, especially in front of his home fans.

• Andrew Nembhard under 4.5 assists: Nembhard has not played a huge role in this series and went under this line in all four games, not to mention he only played 29 minutes in Game 4.

• OG Anunoby 2+ threes: Anunoby has been quietly valuable on the offensive end in this series and went over in three of four games while taking 6.8 threes per game.

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