NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Siakam, Shai Overs and a Special SGP

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers will get the 2025 NBA Finals underway with Game 1 on Thursday, and I have the best player prop picks for the matchup.

The Thunder waltzed into the final round by eliminating the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals in five games. They went 2-0 straight-up and against the spread when they faced the Indiana Pacers during the regular season.

The Pacers are in the Finals after they took down the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games. Pascal Siakam won MVP of the round despite Tyrese Haliburton arguably playing better, though Haliburton only averaged 11 points during his regular-season matchups with OKC.

Here are my best player prop bets and a same-game parlay for Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 1.

Here are my top five player props and a same-game parlay for the Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 matchup on Thursday.

Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points

Siakam averaged 24.8 points per game during the conference finals and is the only member of the Pacers’ squad who averaged at least 20 points during the playoffs. He had a mixed bag during his regular-season matchups with the Thunder, scoring 22 and then 11 points.

Siakam is the only player on Indiana’s team with any sort of NBA Finals experience, and he averaged 21.1 points per game in the playoffs despite only playing 33.6 minutes per night. He should get more time on the court in high-leverage moments, and he’ll be counted on to take big shots due to his experience.

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 Points

The Pacers did a subpar job defending the interior and ranked 11th in the playoffs in points in the paint allowed per game and last in free-throws allowed per game. They also aren’t a great rebounding team, which means Hartenstein could have opportunities for put-backs, free-throws, and to catch lobs from pick-and-roll actions.

Myles Turner is valuable as a defender because he is mobile, which means he could be brought to the level or even switched onto smaller players. Hartenstein is great at finding space behind the defense or getting to his patented push shot from the mid-range, and I like him to go over this line.

Tyrese Haliburton Under 2.5 Threes

Haliburton went under this line in three of his last four games and only shot 33.3 percent from three-point land during the playoffs. He also split the over/under against OKC during the regular season, going 4-9 from deep in one but also posting a 0-2 line despite playing 35 minutes in the other.

The Thunder have the best defense in the league and will almost inevitably pick up Haliburton full-court or have Lu Dort face-guarding him. The Thunder held teams to 33.1 percent three-point shooting during the playoffs and won by an average of 24.7 points per 100 possessions on their home court, which means this could be a blowout early. 

Obi Toppin Over 3.5 Rebounds

Toppin’s versatility mirrors that of some of the Thunder’s most important players, but his extreme advantage in size and leaping ability relative to those players means that he should be in a strong position to collect rebounds. He also went over this line in his last two and in four of six games in the conference finals.

Toppin had three rebounds in both regular-season matchups with the Thunder, but he only played seven minutes in one of those instances. Rick Carlisle has remained committed to his bench, and Toppin, along with the other reserves, should get their run in Game 1 at the very least.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Assists

The MVP went over this line in four of five games in the previous round and averaged 6.9 assists per game during the playoffs. He also posted exactly eight assists in both regular-season meetings with the Pacers, who love to play with pace and create more possessions.

Indy’s willingness to turn the game into a track meet should lead to more open passing lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander. His scoring line is also at a lofty 33.5 points, and this is a much more enticing option as far as his individual markets go.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+263) at FanDuel

-Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5)

• Jalen Williams 2+ threes: Split the over/under during the regular-season series, but he went over in 10 of 16 playoff games and in three of his last four outings. 

• Aaron Nesmith under 11.5 points: As OKC’s best defender and given the expected tempo of this matchup, I expect Nesmith to be run ragged and to go under just like he did in his only game against the Thunder (seven points).

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ points: He scored 33 and 45 points against the Pacers during the regular season and went over in eight of his last nine games.

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