NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Overs Galore and a +650 Parlay

The Indiana Pacers will host the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, and as the stars get ready to return to the court, I’ve made my picks for the best player prop bets.

OKC’s resounding Game 2 victory was led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who poured in 34 points and eight assists, while every member of the Pacers for the second game running failed to score even 20 points.

Indy’s offense has still been fairly efficient overall when it comes to shooting the ball, but they’ve been careless with their turnovers and have only seen their star player, Tyrese Haliburton, average 4.5 first-half points per game. The time to turn that around is in the first game in Indianapolis, but the team is winless in Game 3s in the playoffs.

Here are my best Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks and bets for NBA Finals Game 3.

Here are my top five player props and a same-game parlay for the Pacers vs. Thunder Game 3 matchup on Wednesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 11

Alex Caruso Under 9.5 Points

Caruso is going to be one of the most popular “over” bets of the night coming off his 20-point outburst in Game 2 and seeing as he scored 11 points in Game 1. I’d offer a word of caution, as this is still a player who averaged 7.1 points per game during the regular season and 9.6 during the postseason (inflated by his recent performances).

The Pacers held the Thunder to a lowly 43.9 percent shooting in the series and have done a good job staying in front of their assignments. I don’t expect them to show as much nail help as they did in Game 2, which means fewer open threes for Caruso and the rest of OKC’s rotation.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Rebounds

As spectacular as the MVP has been in his Finals debut, he went under in both Game 1 and Game 2 with five rebounds in each. The Pacers have also been the better of the two teams on the boards with a 52.5 rebound percentage, not to mention that when OKC downsizes, the Pacers have more size thanks to their wings.

Indy shot a respectable 46.3 percent from the field in the series, which has led to fewer rebounding opportunities for the Thunder (41 rebounds per game). Gilgeous-Alexander has been monumental as a scorer, facilitator, and defender, and he can’t also pour his energy into being a prolific rebounder.

Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 Threes

Nesmith shot 49.5 percent from three-point land and made 2.8 threes per game during the playoffs. He also went over in each of the first two games of the series, sinking three and four threes on 7.5 attempts per game (46.7 percent overall).

Enough time has passed in the playoffs for a “hot streak” to wear off. Nesmith is simply shooting the leather off of the ball at a rate only rarely seen by players such as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and even the Thunder’s excellent defense hasn’t found a way to slow him down.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points

Haliburton acknowledged his first-half struggles in the Game 2 postgame press conference, which leads me to believe that the Pacers will look to get him going early in Game 3. He went under in both games to start the series with 17 and 14 points and simply needs to be more effective for Indy to have a chance at winning the series.

Haliburton averaged 3.7 more points per game at home than he did on the road. He also scored 20 in Game 3 against the New York Knicks after he’d been on the road to open the series, just the same way he was against the Thunder, and I’m expecting a big night from him individually.

Andrew Nembhard Over 4.5 Assists

The Pacers found some success late in Game 2, even after it was out of reach, by letting Haliburton get a head of steam off the ball and hitting him in stride. The player making those passes figures to be Nembhard, the second-best facilitator in Indy’s starting five.

Again, there’s a solid chance that Haliburton spends extra time off the ball looking to free himself as a scorer instead of trying to set the table for his teammates. Nembhard also had six assists in Game and just missed the over with four in Game 2, and he had seven assists in both regular-season meetings with the Thunder.

NBA “Down the Slide” Same-Game Parlay (+650) at Caesars

-Oklahoma City Thunder (-5) vs. Indiana Pacers

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ points: Went over in 10 of 11.

• Jalen Williams 20+ points: Averaged 16.5 shots and 18.0 points, should go over if he shoots even 40% from the floor.

• Pascal Siakam 20+ points: Has often found mismatches with smaller defenders and just needs to be more aggressive.

• Chet Holmgren 15+ points: Scored 5 last game and has a clear advantage against Indy’s small lineup.

• Tyrese Haliburton 15+ points: Went over in Game 2, appears focused on becoming a scorer.

• Myles Turner 10+ points: Scored 15+ in both Finals games.

(+650) Bet $10 to Win $65.5 at Caesars