NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & More Picks for Tuesday, Nov. 11

Looking for the best NBA player props on Tuesday, Nov. 11? You came to the right place, because I’ve got my list of ideas.

Cade Cunningham had quite the night, joining Michael Jordan as the only players in NBA history with 45 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and five steals in a game, while also setting a league record with 31 missed field goals, in an overtime win against the Washington Wizards. Victor Wembanyama also dropped 38 points, 12 rebounds, five blocks, and a game-winning shot in a win against the Chicago Bulls. 

Tuesday’s slate is headlined by the Golden State Warriors visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics facing the Philadelphia 76ers, among other matchups.

Here are my top NBA player prop bets and picks for Tuesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, November 11

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Michael Porter Jr. Under 22.5 Points (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Porter Jr. enters Tuesday’s matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the Toronto Raptors having scored at least 25 points in three straight games and gone over this line in four of his last five contests. While he has a relatively free license to shoot from anywhere on the floor, I don’t believe that he can carry this kind of momentum into Tuesday’s contest.

Believe it or not, the Raptors allowed the fewest points per game despite only being 16th in defensive rating. They have lots of long wings and physical shotblockers that are willing to contest shots, and they are also in the top five in three-point makes and percentage allowed, both of which are crucial to slowing down the perimeter-centric Porter Jr.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 Rebounds (-138) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The reigning MVP had seven boards his last time on the court and is 6-5 in favor of the over. He also went over in two of three matchups with the Warriors last year and averaged 5.2 boards per game to start the new season.

The Warriors are active on the wings and in the backcourt, but they don’t have a dominating interior player who will control the glass. They’re also 21st in rebounds allowed per game and 19th in rebound rate, neither of which is high enough for me to believe that they will keep SGA under this line.

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Quentin Grimes Over 3.5 Assists (+116) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Grimes had four assists in his last game, averaged 4.4 helpers per game, and has a 50/50 split of overs and unders for the season. He also cashed the over three times during his five games with Joel Embiid, who is expected to be available on Tuesday night on the court. 

The Boston Celtics have a stingy defense and rank sixth in assists allowed per game, which obviously isn’t great for Grimes’ prospects. At the same time, he already cashed one over in two games against the C’s this season, and these odds imply there is some +EV on this line.

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Andrew Nembhard Under 2.5 Rebounds (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With all due respect to Nembhard, averaging one rebound per game this season is pretty pathetic, even if he only appeared in three games. He hasn’t cashed the over one time and has never been a great rebounder, having averaged 2.7, 2.1, and 3.3 rebounds per game during his first three seasons in the NBA.

The Utah Jazz allow a lot of rebounds because of their pace of play, but they’re sixth in rebound rate and have a very tall lineup. Nembhard doesn’t usually prefer to get his nose in the thick of the battle on the boards and has to prove that he can consistently get over this line before I change my mind.

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Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 Assists (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jokic has been much more aggressive as a scorer recently, averaging 31.3 points on a whopping 69.6 percent shooting from the field in November. At the same time, he had 14 assists in his last game and went over this line in three of his last four, including when he dropped 14 dimes on the Kings last Monday.

The Kings are dead last in points allowed per game, as well as being 27th in assists allowed per game. I believe there will be plenty of free looks at the basket against a terrible defense, and that Jokic will help set up his teammates just like he did last week and three times in four matchups one year ago.

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