NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Nikola Jokic, Alperen Sengun & More Picks for Thursday, Dec. 11

The NBA Cup quarterfinals are over, and I’ve made my best player prop picks and bets for the regular return of the NBA.

Stephon Castle starred for the San Antonio Spurs last night, dropping 30 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in an upset win over the Los Angeles Lakers. That’s after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 28 points and eight assists helped drive the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 49-point win over the Phoenix Suns earlier in the evening.

Today’s schedule includes four matchups, headlined by the Los Angeles Clippers taking on the Houston Rockets, and the Boston Celtics visiting the Milwaukee Bucks.

Time to get to it. These are my top five NBA player prop bets and picks for Thursday, Dec. 11.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, December 11

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Payton Pritchard Over 16.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Pritchard hasn’t exactly been at his best recently, having gone under in three of four games in December. That’s after he closed November with a 42-point explosion against the Cleveland Cavaliers, part of him averaging 17.1 points on 44.9 percent shooting for the year.

The Bucks are 18th in points allowed per game over their last 15 and are missing Giannis Antetokounmpo as a rim deterrent. Pritchard only shot 40.7 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from three in December, but he’s much better than that, and a regression to the mean should be enough for him to cash the over.

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Alperen Sengun Over 21.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Sengun went over this line with ease in three straight games and averaged 23.1 points on 50.5 percent shooting. Even better, he took at least 15 field goal attempts in four straight games, a positive sign for a player I need to aggressively look for his shot tonight.

Ivica Zubac is a solid interior defender, but the Clippers are still 19th in points allowed per game over their last 15 outings. His persistence as a scorer recently, combined with a general collapse on the West Coast, makes me believe that he can stay hot and get over this line.

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Derik Queen Over 4.5 Assists (+112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Queen had the best game of his young career the last time he was on the court, as he went for 33 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and four blocks. He’s now gone over this line in four straight games and has unequivocally demonstrated his ability to be a playmaker for his teammates when given the opportunity.

The New Orleans Pelicans are preparing to meet the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 19th in average assists and 25th in average points allowed over their last 15 games. Donovan Clingan is out, hampering their defense, while Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are out for the Pels, which means the ball should be in Queen’s hands more often.

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Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jokic had field days all three times he faced the Sacramento Kings in this young season, going for 34, 35 and 44 points on a combined 46-69 (66.7 percent) shooting. Their last meeting on Nov. 22 saw him go for 44 points on 57.1 percent shooting, not to mention he also had 13 rebounds and seven assists.

With Domantas Sabonis still out of the lineup, Maxime Raynaud, Precious Achiuwa and Drew Eubanks will earn the responsibility of trying to guard the best player in the world. The Kings conceded the third-most points in the paint per game over their last 15 contests, so I feel confident that Jokic can go four-for-four in overs against the Kings.

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Russell Westbrook Under 8.5 Assists (+114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I have a hard time believing that there’s an NBA coach in 2025 who believes that regularly playing Westbrook for 40 minutes in regulation—which is what Doug Christie did a few days ago—is a good idea. Zach LaVine is out, but the Kings still have DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk, and Keon Ellis waiting in the backcourt.

Westbrook beat this line in three straight and four of his last five, on top of going over in two of three games against the Nuggets. With all that said, Denver knows how to play off of Westbrook since they saw him up close and personal recently, and I don’t expect him to log anywhere near as many minutes as he just did.

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