After a perfect 5-0 day of betting yesterday, I’m back to reveal my best NBA player prop picks for Friday’s action.
While the College Football Playoff is about to get underway, the world of basketball is still recovering from the 45-point, 14-assist, 11-rebound masterclass produced by Luka Doncic last night. Jalen Johnson also went for 43 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists, but it wasn't enough to take down a fiery Charlotte Hornets squad.
There are five matchups on Friday, including the Boston Celtics hosting the Miami Heat and the Minnesota Timberwolves welcoming the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Friday, Dec. 19.
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| Best NBA Prop Bets Today | Odds | Get $150 in Bonus Bets at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro Over 20.5 Points | -118 | CLAIM HERE |
| Karl-Anthony Towns Over 10.5 Rebounds | -122 | CLAIM HERE |
| Dylan Harper Under 14.5 Points | -118 | CLAIM HERE |
| Darius Garland Over 2.5 Threes | -128 | CLAIM HERE |
| Anthony Edwards 6+ Rebounds | +128 | CLAIM HERE |
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Herro has been nothing but consistent since he got back out on the floor, scoring at least 20 points in all six games in which he featured. He also posted highly impressive 51/41/92 shooting splits from the floor and got to take off from last night’s game against the Brooklyn Nets.
The Celtics have a great defense and held their opponents to the fifth-fewest average points over their last 15 games, but Herro is in rhythm and is capable of breaking down his nearest defender off of the dribble. Considering his level of consistency, I don’t mind the challenge against this opponent.
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Joel Embiid is expected to be available for the Philadelphia 76ers, but that doesn’t mean what it did in recent years. The towering big man only averaged 6.6 rebounds per game and could be hesitant to battle a team as scrappy and relentless on the interior as the Knicks are.
With Embiid’s medical issues providing a constant source of skepticism, Towns has a great opportunity. He hasn’t gone over or under in consecutive games all month, but he averaged 11.9 rebounds per game, he’s fresh after not playing last night, and he had 11 rebounds in only 30 minutes in his last outing.
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One of the most important rules in sports betting is to never normalize outlier performances or trends. That’s especially relevant right now, since Harper, who made 0.8 threes per game on 30.2 percent shooting from range, went 8-12 from three-point land in his last two games.
Without those triples, Harper’s two-game scoring average would’ve fallen from 22.5 to 10.5. The Washington Wizards have a miserable defense, and Harper beat this line in six of his last nine games, but regression to the mean as a shooter should help keep him under this total.
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Garland went 3-7 from three against this same Chicago Bulls team on Wednesday, and he also went 3-7 from deep in his game before that. He only shot 20.5 percent from beyond the arc in December, but he took 7.8 threes per game and is a 38.5 percent career shooter from long range.
The Bulls are friendly to opposing shooters, ranking 24th in made threes allowed per game and 21st in three-point percentage allowed over their last 15 outings. Considering he just went over against this team and figures to get better as a shooter, there’s a lot of value on this line.
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There’s a palpable desire whenever Edwards runs into the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions. He went over this line in their last five matchups, including an eight-rebound performance when he met them near the end of November.
On top of his rivalry with the Thunder, Edwards had nine rebounds in his last game, and he cashed the over in three straight games, as well as in five of his last eight. The Thunder are right in the middle of the league in effectiveness on the glass, but they don’t have strong rebounding wings, which is another reason to back Edwards.
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