After another 5-0 day yesterday, I’m back to share my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Tuesday’s slate.
Paolo Banchero dropped a 23-point triple-double last night, but his Orlando Magic came up one point short against the Toronto Raptors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander closed out the evening with 39 points, six rebounds, and six assists in a high-scoring affair against the Atlanta Hawks.
There are only four games on Tuesday, but one of those pits the Detroit Pistons against the Los Angeles Lakers in an important matchup for both squads.
Let’s jump into my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Tuesday, Dec. 30.
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| Best NBA Prop Bets Today | Odds | Get $250 in Bonus Bets at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 Rebounds | +104 | CLAIM HERE |
| Luka Doncic Under 7.5 Assists | -108 | CLAIM HERE |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 19.5 Points | -102 | CLAIM HERE |
| Hugo Gonzalez Pena Over 6.5 Points | -102 | CLAIM HERE |
| Russell Westbrook Under 6.5 Rebounds | -130 | CLAIM HERE |
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Thompson went over this line in four straight games and in seven of his last nine outings. His minutes have decreased recently, but he’s still averaged out in the mid-to-high 20s per game, which gives him enough time to cash the over.
The Los Angeles Lakers do a nice job on the boards and allowed the second-fewest rebounds per game. That said, LeBron James’ lack of effort away from the play, whether that be boxing out or getting into the mix under the hoop, leaves weakside rebounding opportunities open constantly. That puts Thompson in a position to capitalize on that weakness.
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Doncic should be in the MVP conversation more than he is, seeing as he averaged a league-leading 33.7 points, 8.6 assists, and 8.3 rebounds per game. However, he hasn’t been much of a facilitator recently, going under this line in four of his last five contests.
Austin Reaves is sidelined by a calf injury, and Doncic went under this line in three of four games without Reaves and with LeBron on the floor. The Detroit Pistons also allowed the fewest assists per game and will be bringing the intensity after losing back-to-back games amid their 24-8 start to the season.
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Jackson Jr. has enjoyed a solid stretch as a scorer, going over this line in six of his last seven games. Despite that, he only averaged 18.7 points per game in December and 18.5 for the year, largely because he’s been one of the worst around-the-rim finishers in basketball.
The Philadelphia 76ers don’t typically have a strong interior defense, but they were just below the middle of the league in points allowed per game over the last few weeks. With Joel Embiid in line to be on the court and potentially improve Philly’s interior defense, I don’t feel good about Jackson Jr.’s chances of beating this line almost entirely from the perimeter.
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Gonzalez recently found his way into the Boston Celtics’ rotation, and he made the most of it. The 28th pick in the recent draft scored 13 points in 30 minutes on Sunday and beat this line in three of his last five games, playing at least 28 minutes in all but one of those.
The Celtics are taking on the Utah Jazz, who allowed the most points per game and are 7.5-point home underdogs on Tuesday. A potential blowout could open the door for Gonzalez to play heavy minutes again, but he’s also earned playing time on his own merit and shot an efficient 52.2 percent when on the floor.
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While Westbrook is the best rebounding guard ever, which he emphasized at a recent press conference, he went under this line in eight of his last 12 games. Keegan Murray is also back available, which could mean fewer minutes for Westbrook, and more capable rebounders on the court for the Sacramento Kings.
The Los Angeles Clippers play at the second-slowest pace in the league, ahead of only the Boston Celtics. That glacial pace of play is a major reason why they allowed the eighth-fewest rebounds per game and why I believe they will keep Westbrook contained.
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