NBA Player Props and Best Bets: James Harden & More Picks for Thursday, Jan. 1

What better way to celebrate the start of the New Year than with a batch of the best NBA player props for Thursday? Am I right?

Jalen Johnson closed out 2025 with 34 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists, helping the Atlanta Hawks get past the Minnesota Timberwolves. Victor Wembanyama also had 31 points and 13 rebounds in only 24 minutes as the San Antonio Spurs won the NBA Cup final rematch against the New York Knicks thanks to a furious fourth-quarter comeback.

There are five games to take in on New Year’s Day, headlined by the 25-8 Detroit Pistons hosting the Miami Heat.

Here’s to good luck and good fortune in 2026! And without further ado, here are my best NBA player prop picks and bets for Thursday, Jan. 1.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, January 1

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Cam Thomas under 1.5 rebounds (+132) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Yes, this is a real line. Thomas, who was injured on Nov. 5, has only been back for two games, playing 20 and 19 minutes in those. He logged three and 0 rebounds in those games, but even when he was playing more than 30 minutes per night early in the season, he never grabbed more than two rebounds (cashing the under in three of seven).

The Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets are both in the bottom four for average pace of play. The Rockets also concede the fewest rebounds per game and have tons of size all over the court, while Thomas is 6-foot-3 and doesn’t play big on the glass, nor does he show much desire when it comes to rebounding the ball.

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Kel’El Ware under 9.5 rebounds (+108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The 7-foot 21-year-old is sixth in the NBA in rebounding, having maintained an average of 10.6 per night. Despite that, he went under this line in three of his last four games, and his minutes assignments have been fairly erratic.

The Pistons are anchored by Jalen Duren, who is a major reason why they allowed the fourth-fewest rebounds per game. Ware only had seven rebounds in 22 minutes when these teams matched up on Nov. 29, and I think there’s a lot of value on his under.

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Paul George over 2.5 threes (+128) at FanDuel Sportsbook

George just took 11 three-point attempts in his last game, making three, and has now cashed the over in three straight and in five of his last seven outings. He shot 43.7 percent from beyond the arc on 7.1 attempts per game in December and was much more efficient from outside than he was on the interior.

The Dallas Mavericks surrendered the third-fewest made threes per game, but with Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and VJ Edgecombe also on the floor, they won’t be able to sell out to defend the perimeter and George, who has been shooting the leather off of the basketball.

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Derrick White over 3.5 threes (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook

White just accomplished a heck of a feat on Tuesday, tallying a career-high seven blocks to go with his 27 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. He went under this line in four straight games, but I certainly have my reasoning for backing him to go over.

Despite failing to cash the over, he took 10 three-point attempts in back-to-back games. He also shot 38.2 percent from deep on 10.9 three-point attempts per game in December and still found a way to go over in seven of 13 games, and I believe he can get back to that against the Sacramento Kings’ middling perimeter defense.

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James Harden under 5.5 rebounds (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While the Utah Jazz play at a rapid pace, they also play next to no defense, which means that the potential for an increased number of rebounds doesn’t really exist, at least on the offensive end. Harden also only had two rebounds in 29 minutes when these teams matched up previously in their first games of the season.

More recently, Harden went under this line in 11 straight games, also known as the entirety of December. Ivica Zubac is out, but John Collins and Kawhi Leonard will command the majority of the rebounding duties, leaving Harden to focus on orchestrating the offense.

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