NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren & More Picks for Friday, Feb. 27

It’s Friday, and my NBA player prop picks are back to close out the week on a high note.

Kevin Durant turned back the year and went for 40 points on the second night of a back-to-back as the Houston Rockets took down the Orlando Magic last night. Luka Doncic also dropped 41 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists, but that wasn’t enough to get past the shorthanded Phoenix Suns.

Friday’s slate of games includes a matchup between top teams in the Eastern Conference as the Cleveland Cavaliers prepare to visit the Detroit Pistons. The evening finishes up with the last two champions from the Western Conference facing off, as the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Denver Nuggets.

Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Friday, Feb. 27.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, February 27

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Evan Mobley Over 7.5 Rebounds (+114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I’m going to go against the grain here. It’s easy to pick on Mobley, who only got two rebounds in a game against the Thunder five days ago, and who is not an intimidating presence on the glass despite being 6-foot-11, but I’m choosing to look at the positive here.

The Pistons rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game, and while Mobley went under in their last matchup, he also split the over/under in the season series at one apiece. He went over in five of seven games to finish January, and he’s yet to play more than 25 minutes in a game in February, and I believe that a return to his normal playing time will help vault him over this number.

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Michael Porter Jr. Over 21.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The past doesn’t always dictate the future, but Porter Jr. scored at least 25 points in all three earlier matchups with the Boston Celtics this season. He also went over in three of his last four games and is 15th in the NBA in scoring at 24.6 points per night.

The Brooklyn Nets are awful, while the Celtics are one of the top teams in the East and allowed the fewest points per game in the entire league. With all of that said, Porter Jr. has proven he can score consistently in Brooklyn, and he’s going to get to force a ton of shots without having the pressure of being expected to win.

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Jose Alvarado Over 1.5 Threes (-132) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Alvarado was recently traded to his hometown team, and he responded by going under this line in four of six games. However, he made eight threes in one of those games, and he played at least 20 minutes and took at least four three-point attempts in four straight games, giving him the platform to go over this line.

The New York Knicks are about to face the Milwaukee Bucks, who ranked 27th in made threes allowed per game over their last 10 outings. Alvarado is far from the biggest (literal and figurative) scoring threat in the Knicks’ offense, and he should end up with open shots he’s more than capable of knocking down.

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Naji Marshall Under 5.5 Rebounds (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Marshall was outstanding last night, going for 36 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in 42 minutes against the Sacramento Kings. Unfortunately for the Dallas Mavericks, they still lost that game, and they have the second leg of a back-to-back tonight.

Marshall went under this line in six straight games before last night, and it’s reasonable to expect his legs to be drained after the intense activity and heavy minutes last night. The Memphis Grizzlies have not been productive on the glass, but Marshall also doesn’t have a track record of consistently beating this line.

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Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Holmgren averaged 17.2 points per contest, but he went under this number in five of his last six games and only scored seven points in 30 minutes in his last outing against the Toronto Raptors. He only played the Nuggets one time this season, on Feb. 1, and he finished shooting 30 percent from the floor for 14 points.

The 7-foot-1 center hasn’t had a great time matching up with Denver recently, going under in their last four matchups dating back to Nov. 2024. The Nuggets also ranked third in points allowed per game over the last couple of weeks, and I expect Holmgren to cash the under in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s return to the lineup.

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