NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Nikola Jokic, Stephon Castle & More Picks for Thursday, March 5

As March Madness draws tantalizingly closer, I’m back with another batch of my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, March 5.

Chet Holmgren balled out in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s three-point win over the New York Knicks last night, making six threes en route to 28 points and eight rebounds. Jrue Holiday also had one of his best games in recent memory, dropping 35 points and 11 assists to lift the Portland Trail Blazers over the Memphis Grizzlies.

Tonight’s slate of games includes another headlining matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and the Detroit Pistons, as well as a nationally-televised matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers.

Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Thursday, March 5.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 5

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Carlton Carrington Under 4.5 Assists (-132) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Trae Young is expected to make his Washington Wizards debut tonight against the Utah Jazz. He will almost inevitably be on a minutes restriction, but even in those minutes that he’s on the court, I expect him to dominate the ball and take away assist opportunities from Carrington.

The second-year pro went over this line in four of his last five games and averaged 4.6 assists per game for the year. The Jazz are also terrible on defense, but the sheer presence of ball dominance of Young should give him far fewer chances to rack up assists than he is accustomed to.

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Amen Thompson Over 7.5 Rebounds (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Thompson grabbed 11 and 12 rebounds in his last two games, although he went under this line in seven of his last 10 outings. At the same time, he came up with 14 rebounds in his only previous matchup with the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 26.

The Warriors dropped to 16th in rebounds allowed per game over their last 10 contests and are starting to run out of gas as Stephen Curry continues to be sidelined by an injury. Golden State’s guards and wings can’t hold a candle to the ultra-athletic Thompson when it comes to rebounding ability, and I like his prospects tonight.

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Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Feb. 23 matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, which ended in an 11-point win for the former, shined a light on the Pistons’ discomfort with defending the constant movement of the Spurs offense. They racked up 32 assists, 8.5 more than the Pistons allow on average and nearly five more than the Spurs averaged for the year.

Although Castle dished out 11 assists and had 10 dimes in his last game, he went under this line in six of his last eight. The Pistons arguably have the best defense in basketball, and I expect an improved effort from them in a potential NBA Finals preview.

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Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 Threes (+126) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jokic made 1.9 threes per game and shot 40.1 percent from beyond the arc, but he also went under this line in consecutive games and didn’t even attempt a three in his last game. And, for all of their warts defensively, the Lakers allowed the third-fewest made threes per game over their last 15 contests.

LA’s interior defense is bad, and their rotations are terrible. Jokic might dominate as a scorer or as a playmaker in this game, but I don’t see him getting many open looks from three due to the Lakers’ strengths, but more so, their weaknesses.

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Michael Porter Jr. Over 22.5 Points (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Porter Jr. only scored nine points on Tuesday against this same Miami Heat team, which might scare other odds. However, I’m choosing to look at it through the lens that he had an outlier performance, shooting 3-17 (17.6 percent) from the field, and he only got to play 27 minutes in a blowout loss.

The Heat rank 20th in points and 21st in made threes allowed per game for the year. Porter Jr. went over in three of his last five games and also scored 28 points in the first of two matchups with the Heat on Dec. 18.

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