NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Nikola Jokic, James Harden & More Picks for Monday, March 9

As the countdown to Selection Sunday at the college level ensues, I’ve made my best NBA player prop picks for Monday.

Bam Adebayo put up 24 points, nine rebounds, and six assists to lead the Miami Heat past the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons last night, while Victor Wembanyama’s 29 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks inspired the San Antonio Spurs in a massive 145-120 win over the Houston Rockets.  

There are five matchups tonight, headlined by the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Denver Nuggets in a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks and bets for Monday, March 9.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 9

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James Harden Over 2.5 Threes (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Harden went from shooting the ball well below his career average with the Los Angeles Clippers to making 2.9 threes per game on 44.6 percent shooting in 10 games with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He also went over this line in five of his last seven games, several of those coming against elite perimeter defenses.

The Philadelphia 76ers are explosive on offense, but they don’t do a great job of defending the perimeter. They allowed the fourth-most made threes per game over the last few weeks, and Harden never needs an invitation to shoot the basketball, especially against a scorned ex-team of his.

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Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jokic was an absolute terror on the board during his recent matchups with the Thunder, claiming 17, seven, 18, 13, and 20 rebounds dating back to Nov. 2024. He went under in three straight games, but he also had 13, 17, and 20 rebounds in three of the four games just before that.

The Thunder will be without Isaiah Hartenstein on Monday due to a calf injury, and Chet Holmgren is questionable with an illness. Jokic has the physical size to dominate the Thunder, and he should give full effort to this matchup, given the Thunder’s status as defending champions and conference leaders.

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Cam Spencer Over 5.5 Assists (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Memphis Grizzlies could potentially be without a ton of players on Monday, including Ja Morant, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., Santi Aldama, Taj Gibson, Taylor Hendricks, and Brandon Clarke, just to name a few. Spencer also averaged 5.5 assists per game for the year in only 23.8 average minutes of action.

Spencer can be expected to spend a lot of time with the ball in his hands, and the Brooklyn Nets’ once-solid defense was only 18th in assists allowed per game over their last 15 outings. Spencer has been on a streak of unders, but I expect that to change.

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Ace Bailey Over 14.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Bailey only had nine points in his last outing, but he scored 32 the game before, and he went over this line in five of his last nine outings. He also played more than 30 minutes per night and took 15.5 shots per game in March, giving him the volume to beat this number.

The Golden State Warriors ranked 17th in points allowed per game over the last few weeks, and they just don’t have very good personnel. This feels like a high-scoring encounter in which Bailey can play a starring role.

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Jalen Brunson Under 24.5 Points (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Brunson didn’t play anywhere near his usual standard recently, going under this line in five straight and in eight of his last nine games. However, with his New York Knicks reeling from a 13-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night, I expect a better effort from him and his teammates.

The Clippers ranked 13th in points allowed per game over recent weeks, and Brunson is liable to take tons of shots against any opponent. I view his recent cold streak as an opportunity to grab him at a lower line, not a sign of things to come.

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