NBA Player Props and Best Bets: LaMelo Ball, James Harden & More Picks for Wednesday, March 11

After a historic day around the league, I’m back with my top five NBA player prop picks for Wednesday.

Bam Adebayo did the unthinkable, scoring 83 points—the second-most in an NBA game all-time—in a 150-129 win over the Washington Wizards last night. Victor Wembanyama also had 39 points and 11 rebounds as the San Antonio Spurs beat the Boston Celtics in a battle between teams ranked second in their respective conferences.

Today’s headliner will see two of the top teams in the West go toe-to-toe when the Denver Nuggets host the Houston Rockets. The Cleveland Cavaliers will also match up with the Orlando Magic in a battle on the East Coast. 

Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Wednesday, March 11.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 11

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Kyle Filipowski Under 13.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Filipowski increased his production as a scorer in recent games, scoring 20, 14, and 19 over his last three outings. He took at least 11 field goal attempts in all of those games, which presents a double-edged sword for bettors who have to determine if that trend will continue.

The New York Knicks ranked third in points allowed per game over their last few weeks of action. Filipowski only scored 10 points on 28.6 percent shooting when they matched up in early December, and I don’t believe that his recent efficiency or volume of shots will continue, which is why I like his under.

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LaMelo Ball Over 20.5 Points (+104) at FanDuel Sportsbook

LaMelo was having one of his classic “LaMelo” games in last night’s win against the Portland Trail Blazers, which resulted in him only getting 22 minutes of action. On the plus side, that means that he is fresh, as he gets ready for the team that allowed the third-most points per game in the entire NBA.

Prior to last night’s stinker, Ball had scored more than 20.5 points in consecutive games, despite both of those being losses for the Charlotte Hornets. He doesn’t need an extra invitation to shoot the rock, and I expect him to bounce back and continue his erratic pattern of scoring.

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Aaron Gordon Under 15.5 Points (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Gordon began the year as a hero from three-point land, and he still made 39.3 percent of his long-range attempts for the season. However, he only shot 28.6 percent from deep to begin March, and he was at 33.3 percent in January, showing that he hasn’t shot the ball all that well for a while.

The Rockets are excellent on the boards and have strong interior defense, which will take away lots of Gordon’s easy opportunities in and around the dunker spot. His most valuable contributions could also come on defense and on the boards against a very capable Rockets squad, so I am not very bullish on his prospects as a scorer.

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Darius Garland Under 6.5 Assists (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Garland had a solid start to his career as a member of the Los Angeles Clippers, averaging 17 points and 5.8 assists in 25.8 minutes of action. He went over this line in two of his last three games, but I also believe that he has a tough matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back, but they also ranked ninth in assists allowed per game and typically respond to adversity. Kawhi Leonard is also playing at an extremely high level, and I’m not sure how much time Garland will get to spend with the ball in his hands with that in mind.

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James Harden Over 4.5 Rebounds (-136) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Harden already had five rebounds against the Magic when he faced them with the Clippers on Nov. 20, and he went over this line in three of his last four contests. He’s playing close to 35 minutes per night, which should give him plenty of time to cash the over against a team that ranked 19th in rebounds allowed per game over the last few weeks.

Cleveland’s bigs—namely, Evan Mobley—are inconsistent on the glass, but Harden always seems to come up with rebounds, despite not being tall (by NBA standards) or that intense on the glass. Harden also averaged 5.0 rebounds since he got to Cleveland and 4.9 boards per game for the year.

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