Cavaliers vs. Pacers Prediction and Odds: Cavs Face 0-2 Hole on the Road

The Indiana Pacers will take their 2-0 series lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers back to their home arena for the first time ahead of Game 3 on Friday.

The Cavs finished the regular season with the best record in the Eastern Conference, yet they have not gotten on the board after two games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter all missed Game 2 and are considered questionable heading into Friday.

The Pacers snatched their 2-0 lead thanks to a furious late comeback, capitalized by Tyrese Haliburton’s game-winning stepback three-pointer. They’re now 40-15 in 2025, the third-best record in the league during that time.

Here, I will break down the odds and share my favorite Cavaliers vs. Pacers betting picks for Game 3.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers Betting Odds for Friday, May 9

The Cavaliers are 51-36-1 (58.6 percent) against the spread, 28-15 (65.1 percent) ATS on the road, and 45-34-1 (57 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The Pacers are 41-45-3 (47.7 percent) ATS, 19-22-3 (46.3 percent) ATS at home, and 19-15-1 (55.9 percent) ATS as an underdog.

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Cavaliers vs. Pacers Prediction

Cleveland Cavaliers Preview

We’re about to find out what the Cavs are made of.

Championship odds positioned the Cavs as the third-most likely team to win the NBA Finals before the playoffs started. That seemed optimistic considering they’d only won one playoff series as a group, and they’d need to win four to fulfill those expectations.

In some ways, facing a 2-0 deficit feels par for the course for a young team with championship aspirations but that hasn’t taken its lumps. The counterargument there is they’re going head-to-head with a team in a similar position of youth and inexperience at the highest level.

Injuries have not been kind to Cleveland. Garland’s absence in Game 1 resulted in a significant deterioration in ball movement and lower shot quality, while Donovan Mitchell’s 48 points, nine assists, and five rebounds in Game 2 still weren’t enough to get his team over the finish line.

The Cavs rank third in offensive rating among conference semifinal competitors—unfortunately for them, the team in second is the Pacers, who outscored them by 6.1 points per 100 possessions.  

While Cleveland has an impressive turnover rate, their assist percentage is extremely low. They also barely won the rebounding battle (51 percent) despite having a taller frontcourt and posted a 54.7 true shooting percentage to Indy’s 64.3.

The only game the Pacers lost in the first round was Game 3, which gives the Cavs a glimmer of hope. They could do with Garland and company returning to the lineup, even if they are not 100 percent. 

Above all else, they need to make the mental adjustment to get back in transition and to stay attached to their matchups across multiple actions per defensive possession because of the Pacers’ never-ending movement.

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Indiana Pacers Preview

It’s not unheard of for teams to reach the conference finals and then never come close with the same group of players. The Atlanta Hawks in 2021, the Portland Trail Blazers in 2021… it felt like the Pacers in 2024 could’ve been another team on that list.

Here we are in the early parts of 2025, and the Pacers are two wins away from reaching back-to-back conference finals and cementing themselves as bonafide contenders moving forward.

Indy combined the beautiful offense it ran a year ago with newfound defensive solidarity thanks largely to Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner, and Andrew Nembhard. They’re now a team that can switch nearly everything on defense and that will continuously turn the screws on offense until they find an advantage they can exploit.

Seriously, it gets tiring just watching the Pacers move without the ball. 

The Pacers’ 120.5 offensive rating in this series would’ve ranked second in the entire NBA during the regular season behind only, guess who, the Cavaliers. They also held the Cavs to 6.6 fewer points per 100 possessions than they averaged.

The Cavs would be able to easily implement an adjustment if they were getting killed by one player. The issue here is that the Pacers’ entire starting five averaged 15.9-18.4 points per game during the playoffs, not to mention a combined 28.4 points from Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, and Obi Toppin.

Haliburton in particular has been outstanding in the series, averaging 20.5 points, 8.5 assists, 6.0 rebounds, and 0.5 turnovers on 61.5 percent shooting (50 percent from three). That includes the game-winner in Game 2.

NBA fans and media have been conditioned to believe that the lack of a clear-cut megastar with MVP potential removes a team from championship contention. The Pacers are proving that they can beat the best teams in the league by being more than the sum of their parts, even if those parts are awesome.

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Cavaliers vs. Pacers Betting Pick

• Cavaliers vs. Pacers pick: Pacers +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Let’s be clear: A loss for the Cavaliers will signal the end of the series. No team has ever recovered from a 3-0 series deficit, and an injured Cavs team on the road for Game 4 would, in all likelihood, not become the first.

The Pacers have played better throughout the series, though it’s important to remember the Cavs led most of Game 2 until they capitulated down the stretch. Credit to the Pacers, but it’s not like they’ve completely outclassed Indy for all eight quarters.

I’d recommend waiting for the injury report to come out before placing any wagers—but in complete honesty, I trust the Pacers more than I do the Cavaliers, and I’d be willing to back them on the spread regardless of who is available for the visitors.

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How to Watch Cavaliers vs. Pacers on 5/9/25

• When: Friday, May 9 @ 7:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

• TV: ESPN