Pacers vs. Cavaliers Prediction and Odds: Will Indy Close Out the Series?

The Indiana Pacers will take their 3-1 series lead on the road to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Tuesday.

The Pacers are just one win away from advancing to their second straight Eastern Conference Finals. They’re 3-1 on the road in the playoffs and just scored their largest win of the series, a 20-point win that they led by 41 points at halftime.

The Cavs had the best record in the East during the regular season but have had no answers for the Pacers’ elite shotmaking. To make matters worse, Donovan Mitchell is questionable with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the second half of Game 4.

Here, I will break down the odds and share my favorite betting pick for the Pacers vs. Cavaliers matchup on Tuesday.

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Pacers vs. Cavaliers Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 13

The Pacers are 42-46-3 (47.7 percent) against the spread, 20-16-1 (55.6 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 22-23 (48.9 percent) ATS on the road.

The Cavaliers are 52-37-1 (58.4 percent) ATS, 46-35-1 (56.8 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 23-21-1 (52.3 percent) ATS at home.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Pacers vs. Cavaliers Prediction

Indiana Pacers Preview

The Pacers are playing the best basketball of any team in the playoffs. They scored 80 points in the first half of Game 3 and are now shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from three in this series.

The key to Indy’s remarkable offensive consistency has come from its pace, depth, and constant movement.

Rick Carlisle once described his team as a conceptual team more than one that prefers to run set plays. That discredits their innovation with the ball in their attacking half, and they will run multiple actions per possession just to keep defenses off-balance and totally unaware of what they actually want to get to.

The Pacers rank third in the playoffs in average pace of play, behind the Memphis Grizzlies (who were swept in the first round) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (who had the best regular-season record).

They’ve gotten killed on the boards and turned the ball over more than they’re accustomed to in this series, but that hasn’t made any sort of noticeable impact.

Pascal Siakam leads Indy in playoff scoring at 18.6 points per game. All five of their starters averaged at least 14.2 points, and Tyrese Haliburton averaged 17.2 points and 9.4 assists to just 1.9 turnovers per game.

Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, and Obi Toppin have also been efficient off the bench, adding another 30.3 points per game on 47.5, 52.9, and 52.2 percent shooting, respectively.

The Pacers were only 20-20 on the road during the regular season but won Games 1 and 2 on the road to open the series. They're 41-15 in 2025, the third-best record in the league during that stretch, and have all of the momentum in the world entering a potential closeout game.

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Cleveland Cavaliers Preview

The Cavs were a simply outstanding regular-season team. Unfortunately for them, the wheels are falling off at the wrong time.

Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and De’Andre Hunter all missed Game 2 with various injuries, and Mitchell might not be able to get onto the court tonight because of his ankle. The team has also been much less active and committed to moving the ball on the offensive end, and they don’t have the defense to slow down Indy’s unrelenting attacks.

The Cavs only shot 43.6 percent from the field and 30.2 percent from three in the series. Their advanced metrics are propped up by their 22-point win in Game 3, but the key is that Indy leads all second-round playoff teams with a 117.3 offensive rating. 

With all of that said, it’s not as if the Cavs are without hope. They went 64-18 during the regular season and had numerous double-digit-game winning streaks, meaning they’re capable of going on unmatched busts.

Donovan Mitchell leads Cleveland at 28.9 points per night during the postseason. He scored 33, 48, and 43 in the first three games of the series before only managing 12 in 20 minutes during Game 4.

Whether or not Mitchell plays, the Cavs need to do a better job of slowing down the Pacers in transition. They’ve made it a point to get defenders in the face of Haliburton in the backcourt to prevent outlet passes, but they’ve still struggled to stay attached to fast-moving three-point shooters and to clog the driving lanes early in the shot clock.

The biggest reflection of that is in the points scored off turnovers, where Indy ranks second among second-round teams with 19.8 per game.

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Pacers vs. Cavaliers Betting Pick

• Pacers vs. Cavaliers pick: Pacers +7.5 (-105) at BetMGM

The oddsmakers are invested in the Cavaliers as 7.5-point favorites. For context, Cleveland was favored by about nine points in the first two games of the series, which they lost by nine and one point.

It’s become apparent that Indy—who beat Cleveland in six of their eight regular- and postseason matchups—can play with their opponent. The looming potential absence of Mitchell makes the Cavs’ prospects even murkier, especially given the total lack of fight they showed in Game 4.

This is a case of math and numbers being slow to adjust to what the eyes can see. The Pacers are the better team and are healthy, and I’d confidently back them at +7.5 with a great chance to win outright.

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How to Watch Pacers vs. Cavaliers on 5/13/25

• When: Tuesday, May 13 @ 7:00 p.m. ET

• Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max