Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Can Indy Pull Another Historic Upset?

The Oklahoma City Thunder will kick-off the 2025 NBA Finals by hosting the Indiana Pacers for Game 1 on Thursday.

The Thunder are huge favorites in the series-opener and the largest favorites in NBA Finals history, clocking in at -700 to win the series at BetMGM. They already went 2-0 straight-up and against the spread when they faced the Pacers during the regular season thanks to wins of six and 21 points.

If there’s a team to do the unthinkable, it’s this Indy team. They registered three of the four most improbable comeback wins in playoff history in this run to the NBA Finals and have been overwhelmingly dominant in clutch time, outscoring their opponents by 37.4 points per 100 possessions when the money was on the table.

Here, I will break down the Thunder vs. Pacers Game 1 odds and share my favorite picks for the first installment of the 2025 NBA Finals.

If you are looking for more betting insights for this matchup, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Thursday, June 5

The Pacers are 47-48-3 (49.5 percent) against the spread, 25-24 (51 percent) ATS on the road, and 23-17-1 (57.5 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Thunder are 60-35-4 (63.2 percent) ATS, 34-14-2 (70.8 percent) ATS at home, and 58-34-4 (63 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction

Indiana Pacers Preview

The Pacers’ run to the NBA Finals is totally unique. Their leading scorer, Pascal Siakam, only averaged 21.1 points per game, but all five of their starters scored at least 12.8 points per contest. 

This starless approach perfectly encapsulates the Pacers squad and the changing of the guard as the league moves from the “Big Three” era into one more focused on succeeding through structure and organization. 

The Pacers’ calling card is their terrific offense. They lead the playoffs in true shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio despite playing at a breakneck pace with the ball in their hands. 

This might sound contradictory, but that's where Indy sets itself apart. Rather than frantically trying to make plays in transition, they utilize throw-ahead passes to try to get the ball across halfcourt within four seconds to force cross-matches, beat the defense to its spot, or simply get more time to poke at matchups in the half-court.

A big question is how Tyrese Haliburton will fare against the physical and relentless defense of the Thunder, potentially with Lu Dort and Alex Caruso face-guarding him. He averaged just 11 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds on 44.4 percent shooting during their two regular-season meetings. 

Indy’s 113.6 defensive rating is only ninth among 16 playoff teams. That will be put to the test against a Thunder team that utilizes a drive-and-kick style, while Indy is fifth in playoff three-point percentage allowed (33.5) and 11th in points in the paint allowed per game (48.1).

Another battle to watch is how and when the Pacers can force defensive mismatches, given the Thunder’s switchability and positional versatility. Spotting the Brook Lopez-on-Andrew Nembhard or Jalen Brunson-on-Myles Turner cross-match is much easier than a team that has no problem switching one-through-four or one-through-five on every offensive player.

This is a big series for the Pacers bench. They’re only ninth in net rating among playoff reserve units, but Rick Carlisle has continually given respectable minutes to Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Benedict Mathurin, and Ben Sheppard. Haliburton and Siakam only averaged 35.1 and 33.6 minutes per game, though those should tick up in the finals series of the year.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

Look up “dominance” in the basketball dictionary, and there will be a picture of Thunder’s home court.

The Western Conference champions not only covered more than 70 percent of the time they were on their home floor, but they outscored their opponents by 14.7 points per 100 possessions during the regular season and 24.7 points per 100 possessions during the playoffs. 

While the Pacers sneakily finished with the second-best record since Jan. 1, the Thunder were still ahead by nearly nine percent and had a nine-percent higher success rate against the spread (60.6 to 51.6). They’re also 6-2 ATS at home during the postseason.

The playoffs have revealed how excellently this OKC team was assembled. Their ability to play bench guys heavy minutes has meant that their offense doesn’t get bogged down if one of their rotational members doesn’t have their best stuff, and it’s also allowed them to stay fresh and expend more energy than their opponents while playing at the fastest pace in the playoffs.

OKC’s Game 1 advantage comes from them already facing proficient-to-elite offenses in the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets, while the Pacers haven’t seen a defense anything close to the Thunder’s. Denver and Minnesota were also more physical than anyone that Indy played during its run to the championship round.

One of the most harrowing signs for the Pacers is that the Thunder have dominated the playoffs while only shooting 33.6 percent from three, well below their season average of 37.4. 

Meanwhile, the Pacers outperformed their regular-season true shooting percentage by 1.8 percent in the playoffs but were 2.3 points below their average when they took on the Thunder.

The Thunder also have a serious advantage at the free-throw line, given the Pacers lead the playoffs in free-throw attempts allowed per game (28.6), and the Thunder led the NBA in free-throw percentage.

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Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Pacers vs. Thunder pick: Thunder -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Most of the top sportsbooks are reporting “sharp” money on the Thunder, which is a solid indicator of where the elite bettors are putting their money. OKC’s net rating and performances against the spread are also proof that they are a force to be reckoned with in their building.

It’s unfortunate that the Pacers find themselves as underdogs of this magnitude, because they are a remarkable team. I still worry that the sharp contrast in style, physicality, and speed between the Thunder and the New York Knicks will be a culture shock for the visitors, while OKC has already been tested and hardened with its previous playoff series.

I see this as yet another blowout for the best team in the league.

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How to Watch Pacers vs. Thunder on 6/5/25

• When: Thursday, June 5 @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: ABC