Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Will the Series End in Five Games?

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will take to the court for Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night.

The Thunder righted their ship with a 16-point win in Game 2 after they were stunned on their home court in Game 1, courtesy of yet another Tyrese Haliburton game-winner. They’re 0-7 against the spread on the road in the playoffs, which represents a sharp deviation from their regular-season standard. 

The Pacers proved in Game 1 that they could continue to make shots at a high level even against the best defense in professional basketball. They’re winless in Game 3s in the playoffs and only +425 to win the series, so a win here would be enormous for their title hopes.

Here, I will break down the Pacers vs. Thunder odds and share my favorite NBA Finals Game 3 betting picks.

If you are looking for more betting insights for this matchup, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Wednesday, June 11

The Thunder are 8-10 (44.4 percent) against the spread in the playoffs, 25-20-2 (55.6 percent) ATS on the road, and 59-35-4 (62.8 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The Pacers are 12-6 (66.7 percent) ATS in the postseason, 22-24-3 (47.8 percent) ATS at home, and 24-18-1 (57.1 percent) ATS as an underdog.

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Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

The Finals have been more of the same for the Thunder. They dominated the Pacers for nearly the entire 48 minutes in Game 2 and were up by 15 points with nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter of Game 1.

Any questions about OKC’s ability as a postseason contender have already been answered. They survived the scare of Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in a Game 7 with ease, thumped the more experienced Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, and have been the aggressor on both ends in the Finals.

Despite only recording a 48.1 assist percentage, miles away from the Pacers’ 67.1, the Thunder have dominated in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.81 to 1.27). They only turned the ball over on 10.5 percent of their possessions and have been competitive on the boards, registering a 47.5 percent rebound rate.

No player in the series performed better than MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 36.0 points, 5.5 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.5 steals on 49/40/90 shooting splits. The Thunder also got tremendous support from their bench in Game 2 as Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins combined for 38 points. 

Despite Gilgeous-Alexander dominating as a scorer, he was incredibly intuitive and sharp with his decision-making in Game 2. The Pacers showed more help from the nail than they did in Game 1 and at different points in the series, which led to SGA dicing them up for eight assists and OKC going 14-36 (38.9 percent) from downtown.

Jalen Williams has still yet to get going in the series. He scored 17 and 19 points on an average of 33.3 percent shooting, including 22.2 percent from three. Chet Holmgren had 15 points and six boards in Game 2 after he only scored six points on 22.2 percent shooting in Game 1.

No team can out-depth the Thunder, a lesson that the Pacers are finding out in real-time. The onus is on Indy to introduce new wrinkles to the matchup, because the Finals are comfortably going in OKC’s favor despite the 1-1 score.

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Indiana Pacers Preview

The Pacers posted a 59 percent true shooting percentage against the Thunder, an impressive amount considering the Thunder ranked first in field goal and fifth in three-point percentage allowed. Only one other team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, had a true shooting percentage above 59 in the playoffs (59.7). 

Turnovers have been the primary downfall for Indy. They registered 24, including a Finals record 19 in the first half, in Game 1 and 15 in Game 2, resulting in a grotesque turnover percentage of 20.

Haliburton has played a large role in these struggles. He averaged four turnovers per game in the Finals, nearly doubling his playoff average (2.2) and nearly tripling his regular-season mark (1.6).

Indy’s All-Star guard also averaged just 4.5 first-half points per game on 33.3 percent shooting, which is a major reason he only averaged 15.5 points per game in the Finals. He also hasn’t attempted a free throw in the series.

Indy found success “playing big” with smaller players when OKC downsized. Players such as Pascal Siakam, Obi Toppin, and Aaron Nesmith were able to use their physical advantages against their matchups to score interior buckets and collect loose balls, an issue that OKC remedied in Game 2 with intelligent usage of Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.

An area the Pacers should look to attack is when Pascal Siakam has a seal in the post. He only attempted one field goal in the post area in Game 2 despite regularly having size and strength advantages against his defenders, specifically Cason Wallace.

Nobody on Indy scored 20 points in a game even one time in the Finals. Game 3 is just as much about finding out who still steps up to the plate mentally as it is about looking for schematic and personnel adjustments.

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Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Pacers vs. Thunder pick: Thunder -5.5 (-105) at BetMGM

There are troubling precedents for both teams, whether that be OKC’s inability to cover on the road or Indy’s failure to win Game 3. It’s easy to feel better about what the Thunder have done in the series, but the Pacers have made a living off frenzied finishes just like they did in Game 1.

I will have my eyes fixed on Haliburton. The Pacers are +3.3 with him on the floor and -34.9 with him on the bench, and he needs to be ready to take and make big shots and play heavy minutes.

This is a tough game to call for the reasons I already laid out. I believe the Thunder will end up covering the spread, although I have some anxiety about potentially dealing with the Pacers down six late in the fourth quarter on their home floor.

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How to Watch Pacers vs. Thunder on 6/11/25

• When: Wednesday, June 11 @ 8:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

• TV: ABC