Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prediction and Odds: Can Warriors Survive Without Curry?

The Minnesota Timberwolves will face the Golden State Warriors in Game 4, leading 2-1 in the Western Conference semifinals on Monday.

The Wolves took down the Warriors in their last two matchups, but only by five points in Game 3 despite Stephen Curry missing the contest with a strained hamstring. They’re yet to look like the team that throttled the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round despite being favored on the road tonight.

The Warriors are doing everything they can to survive until Game 6, at which time Curry could return from his injury. Steve Kerr coached a masterclass in Game 3 and had his team in position to win after three quarters, but the team slowly succumbed to their lack of horsepower.

Here, I will break down the odds and share my favorite pick for the Timberwolves vs. Warriors matchup on Monday.

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Timberwolves vs. Warriors Betting Odds for Monday, May 12

The Timberwolves are 44-45-1 (49.4 percent) against the spread, 24-21 (53.3 percent) ATS on the road, and 30-38 (44.1 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The Warriors are 46-44-3 (51.1 percent) ATS, 20-25-1 (44.4 percent) ATS at home, and 19-14 (57.6 percent) ATS as an underdog.

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Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

The Timberwolves are just two games away from being back in the conference finals for the second year running. And unlike last year, when they found themselves down 3-2 to the Denver Nuggets in the conference semis, the path back to the third round looks very attainable.

To say that the visitors have the talent advantage in the series facing a Warriors team without Curry would be putting it lightly. 

The concerning part is that Minnesota has not lived up to its potential or talent in this series. They posted a lowly offensive rating of 108.9 in the series, a mark that would’ve tied the Orlando Magic for 27th during the regular season. 

While the fleeting offense can be attributed to Golden State’s powerful defense, Minnesota has also been careless with the basketball and only knocked down 34 percent of their three-pointers. They’re been greatly aided by their offensive rebounding, which helped them score 18.7 second-chance points per game (third among second-round teams).

Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have once again been the two players to step up. Edwards averaged 26.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.0 steals. However, his excellent playmaking showcased during the first round dried up, and he averaged 3.7 assists to 2.3 turnovers in this series.

Randle, meanwhile, averaged 22 points, 9.7 assists, and 6.7 rebounds and is coming off a 24-point, 12-assist, 10-rebound triple-double in Game 3.

Despite that, Jaden McDaniels leads the Wolves in plus/minus in the series, and Naz Reid is third.

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Golden State Warriors Preview

There’s no doubt about it, tonight is an elimination game for the Warriors.

Going down 3-1 and being without Curry in Game 5 would indicate the end of Golden State’s season. They’ve acquitted themselves well thus far, first by stealing the series opener and then by having a fourth-quarter lead in Game 3 without their best player and lifeblood. 

Let’s start with the positives: first, Golden State’s defense has been simply outstanding in the series. 

They’ve done a tremendous job of showing help in the driving lanes to dissuade Edwards from attacking the rim, but also maintaining enough discipline to play the passing lanes and close out to shooters. Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler played an enormous part in that and have forced the Wolves into poor spacing and somewhat frantic halfcourt possessions.

Butler also reminded the world of what “Playoff Jimmy” can be over the weekend, going for 33 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in 43 minutes. Plus, the once-exiled Jonathan Kuminga scored 30 points on 61.1 percent shooting off the bench.

The glass-half-empty view on that is that Golden State still lost. They’ve been a step slow on the boards, have lost significant three-point volume without Curry, and struggled to get to the free-throw line.

The Game 4 game plan has to revolve around staunch defense and limiting second-chance opportunities. Green fouled out of Game 3 in only 29 minutes and could have helped Golden State win if he’d been on the floor, so his availability and discipline are also crucial.

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Timberwolves vs. Warriors Betting Pick

• Timberwolves vs. Warriors pick: Timberwolves -5.5 (-105) at BetMGM

It would be so easy to look at a Warriors team without Curry and say that they won’t be competitive. However, they went 7-6 without their star player and were close to pulling off the upset in Game 3, even if they ultimately lost by five points on a 4.5-point line.

The Warriors have also been great against the spread as an underdog, while the Wolves have struggled to cover as a favorite. Their halfcourt offense has also been very disappointing even dating back to the first round, and Edwards’ failed playmaking has prevented Minnesota from running wild in the series.

With all of that said, sometimes the correct answer is the one that’s so obvious it’s in front of you. I like the Timberwolves to not necessarily dominate, but to use their advantage in talent and talent depth to get over the line and cover.

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How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Warriors on 5/12/25

• When: Monday, May 12 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

• TV: ESPN