Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Odds: A Nightmare Matchup for Curry and Co.

The Golden State Warriors will visit the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Tuesday evening.

The Warriors only had 48 hours of rest between their Game 7 win in Houston and tip-off in the new series. They went 3-1 against the Wolves in the season series, but both Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III are banged up.

The Timberwolves ousted the Los Angeles Lakers in five games and will be rested after not playing in nearly a week. They’re young, deep, and hungry, and have made a habit of knocking legendary players out of the postseason.

Here, I will break down the Warriors vs. Timberwolves betting odds and share my best picks for Game 1 on Tuesday.

For more betting insights, check our selection of NBA Player Props and Best Bets today.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 6

The Warriors are 44-43-3 (50.6 percent) against the spread, 17-13 (56.7 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 25-18-2 (58.1 percent) ATS on the road. 

The Timberwolves are 43-43-1 (50 percent) ATS, 29-36 (44.6 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 19-23-1 (45.2 percent) ATS at home. 

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction

Golden State Warriors Preview

This is the first time the Warriors have been underdogs in a playoff series since the first round of the 2014. A remarkable feat in and of itself, it’s also representative of the times the basketball world is in, and potentially, a changing of the guard.

The Warriors’ stars are no spring chickens. Curry is 37, Butler is 35, and Draymond Green is 35. The one-day rest between a road Game 7 and a road Game 1 is a cruel reality for a team that arguably would have benefited from extended rest more than any team in the league.

Just like I said before the first round, the Warriors have no chance of winning if Curry can’t deliver them to victory.  His thumb injury has clearly inhibited him at different points, but he averaged 24 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game on 47.1 percent shooting (39.2 percent from three) in the first round.

After Butler, no player averaged more than 11 points per game during the Rockets series. That’s a major issue, as random bench players like Buddy Hield can’t be expected to drop playoff career-highs over the course of seven games.

Golden State currently ranks eighth in offensive and defensive rating in the playoffs with a +0.2 net rating. They had the worst rebound rate in the postseason, although they played the Rockets, who led the league in regular-season and playoff rebounding.

A source of concern is Golden State’s general lack of efficiency. A team built on shooting only ranked 10th in true shooting percentage, though it’s important to acknowledge the Rockets’ physical and relentless defense.

The Dubs went 24-17 on the road during the regular season and 2-2 during the first round. They also beat Minnesota by 10 and one on the road during the regular season.

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Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

The vibes are sky-high in Minnesota. Numerous clips of Anthony Edwards and company celebrating and embracing after they convincingly ousted the Lakers in the first round confirm what everyone already knew, which is that this team has the belief to support its on-court talent.

The Timberwolves rank third in offensive and fifth in defensive rating in the playoffs with a +7.6 net rating. They’re also third in rebound rate and fourth in turnover percentage.

The story of the Lakers-Wolves series was the lopsided battle in the fourth quarter. The latter posted a ridiculous net rating of +40 in the final period and were constantly fresher than their opponent, winning loose balls, securing rebounds, and getting out in transition.

That surplus of energy is a testament to Minnesota’s depth. Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo led the shock troops and were excellent on both ends as versatile plug-and-play pieces capable of handling a multitude of assignments.

The Wolves’ three stars—Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Jaden McDaniels—also had stellar first rounds.

Edwards was decisive with his decision-making, averaging 6.2 assists to just 1.2 turnovers to complement his 26.8 points per game. Randle pitched in another 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists and did a tremendous job defending LeBron James, and McDaniels averaged 17.4 points and 6.4 rebounds while shooting 57.4 percent from the field and handling the primary defending responsibilities.

Minnesota can comfortably roll out a double-big lineup like the one that just gave the Warriors problems with Randle and Rudy Gobert, who also had a career-defining series against LA. 

If that doesn’t work, they can go small and utilize their depth to create space and switchability. In my opinion, the Wolves’ ball movement and decision-making in the first round was the best I’ve seen it be since they became the team they are today.

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Warriors vs. Timberwolves Betting Pick

• Warriors vs. Timberwolves pick: Timberwolves -6.5 (-115) at BetMGM

This is a truly atrocious hand to play for the Warriors. They are going against a hard-nosed, confident, and verbose team that is playing its best basketball of the year and that just had its confidence filled by beating a highly-favored team in five games.

The Warriors, meanwhile, are injured and coming off a draining seven-game series against one of the most physical teams in the league. They had significantly less rest and have to turn around and go back on the road, whereas Minnesota has been resting and preparing to face them.

I love the Timberwolves here. The line has already moved 1.5 points from -5 at opening, but I’d still take the risk. I’d also look at their series price of -1.5 games.

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How to Watch Warriors vs. Timberwolves on 5/6/25

• When: Tuesday, May 6 @ 8:30/9:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max