Best College Basketball Bets for Friday, February 27: Michigan Takes On Illinois, Miami (OH) to Remain Undefeated

• Illinois leads the all-time series vs. Michigan 98-85; Illinois has won the last nine in a row vs. Michigan

• Miami (OH) leads the all-time series vs. Western Michigan, 91-53; the RedHawks have won seven of the last 10

Friday’s college basketball schedule kicks off the weekend with some great matchups. But for today’s “Best College Basketball Bets,” I am going to stick with the two featuring ranked teams: No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 10 Illinois and the undefeated No. 21 Miami (OH) RedHawks.

ESPN Analytics has Illinois as a slight favorite in this game (51.5% on their matchup predictor). Miami (OH) has done well against Western Michigan, but it is fair to wonder if the chance to make history with an undefeated season will put undue pressure on the team.

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini Odds & Pick

• Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-115) | Illinois +1.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Michigan -128 | Illinois +106

• Total: OVER 157.5 (-115) | UNDER 157.5 (-105)

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I find matchups like this more intriguing than the typical ranked team because something has to give. In Michigan, we have one of the best offenses, known for its efficiency. The Wolverines are 6-1 against teams ranked inside the AP Top 25, the best mark in the country.

They are also one of four teams in the country that have yet to lose a road game (9-0).

Illinois doesn’t have as good a record (22-6, 13-4 Big Ten compared to 26-2, 16-1 Big Ten for Michigan). They are 13-2 at home this season with losses to No. 11 Alabama and No. 5 UConn in the nonconference part of their schedule.  

Their record against ranked teams has not been as good this season, at 5-4.

The Fighting Illini have a balanced offense that can shoot from anywhere on the court, they seldom foul (No. 2 in the country), and are the best rebounding team in the Big Ten. Oh yeah—they have dominated Michigan in recent years.

Illinois hasn’t lost to Michigan since January 19, 2019, in Champaign, IL (79-69).

Some factors work in either team’s favor. When it comes down to it, we have two teams with elite offenses (Michigan averages 89.1 ppg and Illinois averages 85) and stellar defenses (Michigan—68.7 ppg allowed; Illinois—69).

• My Pick: UNDER 157.5 at FanDuel

This is going to be a one-possession kind of game. It is going to be an entertaining, hard-fought, close game that gets decided in the final minute. Whoever does not make a mistake in crunch time will win. It could easily be either team.

I see a lot of experts going with the OVER and referencing both teams’ elite offenses. But they don’t seem to give either team’s defense credit for being as good as they are. In games with a similar TOTAL (155-158), both teams were UNDER more than OVER.

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No. 21 Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Western Michigan Broncos Odds & Pick

• Spread: Miami (OH) -12.5 (-110) | Western Michigan +12.5 (-110)         

• Moneyline: Miami (OH) -1000 | Western Michigan +640

• Total: OVER 161.5 (-110) | UNDER 161.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami (OH) has made its undefeated run the old-fashioned way—they outscored everyone. They have the No. 1 scoring offense in the country at 91.6 points per game and play good enough defense to keep teams from catching up (No. 193, 74.1 points per game allowed).

As for Western Michigan (10-18, 4-11 MAC), it has been a rough season for the Broncos. However, knocking off the last undefeated team in the country would certainly give them something to hang their hat on in an otherwise lackluster season.

But when they played Miami (OH) earlier in the season, the RedHawks won 87-76.

• My Pick: Miami (OH) -12.5 at FanDuel

The Broncos won the paint in that earlier game (44-38), but Miami (OH) had 27 points from the charity stripe to Western Michigan’s 16. If they could slow the pace down and force the RedHawks to grind it out in the paint, they could make this game interesting.

But I’m not willing to bet on it. Miami (OH) wants to make history. They’ll take the next step with a big win in this game.

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