Best College Basketball Bets for Wednesday, March 11: SMU vs. Louisville and the Patriot League Final

• SMU beat Louisville 95-85 the last time they played; Louisville won the other four

• Boston University leads the all-time series vs. Lehigh, 17-12, but the Mountain Hawks won three of the last five games

Championship Week rolls on, with more small-school conferences wrapping up their tournaments or getting closer to doing so. Now that the first round is out of the way for the Power Conferences, we can get to some more interesting games for our picks.

For today, I’ve selected an ACC battle featuring one of college basketball’s blue bloods and the Patriot League Tournament Final.

ACC Tournament – Second Round: SMU Mustangs vs. No. 24 Louisville Cardinals Odds & Pick

• Spread: SMU +5.5 (-110) | Louisville -5.5 (-110)  

• Moneyline: SMU +168 | Louisville -205

• Total: OVER 164.5 (-105) | UNDER 164.5 (-115)

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SMU’s bread and butter this season on the offensive end has been paying at an up- tempo pace, spreading the floor, and creating open shots on the perimeter (three-point percentage-- 37.8%, No. 23 in the country). 

They move the ball well and don’t tend to settle for contested shots, which often leads to more opportunities for assists (17.1 per game, No. 30). However, while they are strong on the offensive end, they are often lacking on defense (78.4 ppg allowed, No. 18 in ACC).

As for Louisville, the Cardinals are a prototypical “live and die” by-the-three-point kind of team. Over 50% of their shots are from three-point range; they rank first in the conference in attempts (32.7) and threes per game (11.9). 

With multiple shooting threats, they can force defenses to spread the floor, creating more open shot opportunities.

My Pick: OVER 164.5 at FanDuel

The outcome of this game depends on two things: Louisville blowing up from three-point range and/or how SMU plays in the paint. If the Mustangs win the paint, as they did in their 95-85 win over the Cardinals, they win this game. Should Louisville go off from three-point range, the Cards will win.

If they both do well (which is entirely possible), the winner will be whoever can make a clutch play down the stretch. No matter who does it, the final score will be high. They went OVER this mark in one game and missed by 0.5 points in the other.

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Patriot League Championship Final: Boston University Terriers vs. Lehigh Mountain Hawks Odds & Pick

• Spread: Boston University -1.5 (-114) | Lehigh +1.5 (-106)

• Moneyline: Boston University -126 | Lehigh +105

• Total: OVER 140.5 (-110) | UNDER 140.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

The Mountain Hawks like to run their offense through the interior players, giving them more opportunities for high-percentage shots, e.g., Hank Alvey’s 30-point night vs. Colgate. That size in the interior also helps them defend the rim and force teams to shoot more from the perimeter.

Their guards are good at attacking the rim and drawing fouls (which was key to Lehigh’s 70-67 win over Boston U). They don’t rely on three-point shooting like many teams, but that can make it more challenging to close the gap if/when they fall behind.

As for Boston U, the Terriers take a different approach, relying more on tempo and perimeter shooting. They rank No. 5 in the country and No.1 in the conference in three-point shooting (40%).

 With a two-point and a one-point victory in the tournament, they have proven they can come through late in the game, in clutch moments, and make big plays when needed.

• My Pick: OVER 140.5 at FanDuel

Their first regular-season matchup is a great example of the scoring potential this game has (93-91 OT; 74-74 in regulation). The second matchup fell short at 70-67, but Boston U did not have as good a day from three-point range.

And they still almost made it. Both have scored right around 70+ points per game in the tournament, just enough to go OVER this TOTAL.

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