Best College Basketball Bets for Friday, March 13: Big 12 Semifinal and Big Ten Quarterfinal

• Arizona leads the all-time series vs. Iowa State 6-4; Arizona has won five of the last six meetings, including this year's regular-season meeting (Mar. 2, 73-57)

• Purdue leads the all-time series vs. Nebraska, 22-7

It is about to get real in the Power Four Conference Tournaments as they enter the quarterfinal and semifinal stages. At this point, the best teams remain, meaning the games will get more intense and exciting. Today’s Best College Basketball Bets will include a quarterfinal and semifinal game.

I’ll start with one of the Big 12 semifinal games, featuring No. 2 Arizona and No. 7 Iowa State, before moving on to a Big Ten quarterfinal game, No. 18 Purdue vs. No. 11 Nebraska.

Big 12 Tournament - Semifinal: No. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 7 Iowa State Cyclones Odds & Pick

• Spread: Arizona -3.5 (-120) | Iowa State +3.5 (-102)        

• Moneyline: Arizona -170 | Iowa State +140

• Total: OVER 143.5 (-110) | UNDER 143.5 (-110)

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This game is described by many as an elite defense  (Iowa State) taking on an elite offense (Arizona). In a sense, it’s an accurate statement. The Wildcats are averaging 86.7 points per game (No. 14 in the country), and the Cyclones are allowing 65 points per game (No. 11). 

But that doesn’t tell the whole picture. Iowa State is averaging 82.1 points per game (No. 55). Arizona allows 68.6 points per game, good enough to rank No. 51. These teams are not great at just one thing. They are also really good at the other.

This makes it look like it should be a competitive game, but the regular-season game was anything but (Arizona won, 73-57). Arizona shot 17 fewer shots than Iowa State (48 to 65) but made three more baskets (22-19). The Cyclones went 12-13 from the free-throw line; the Wildcats, 23-26.

Arizona outplayed Iowa State in a few other categories, but those two were the most significant.

• My Pick: Arizona -3.5 at FanDuel

Iowa State is a good team that does quite a few things really well. Arizona is a good team as well, but with the depth to keep up a high level of play no matter who is in the game. The Cyclones defense will keep the game from getting out of hand, but Arizona will cover this small spread.

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Big Ten Tournament - Quarterfinal: No. 18 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers Odds & Pick

• Spread: Purdue -4.5 (-102) | Nebraska +4.5 (-120)

• Moneyline: Purdue  -178 | Nebraska +146

• Total: OVER 142.5 (-110) | UNDER 142.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

I always find this kind of matchup intriguing. Purdue is the higher-ranked team, the lower-seeded one (7 to 2), and had the lesser record during the regular season (Purdue—24-8, 13-7; Nebraska—26-5, 15-5). So, surely the Cornhuskers are favored since they appear to be the better team, right?

Wrong! Purdue is favored by 4.5 points. But why?

The Boilermakers did beat the Cornhuskers in regular-season play, 80-77 OT. Statistically, they performed in a similar fashion, but Purdue had a significant advantage in one category: rebounding (54-37; 21-6 on the offensive boards).

All the offensive boards helped Purdue take 76 shots to Nebraska’s 59 and make two more than the Cornhuskers (28-26). Their size advantage in the interior with Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff is crucial. As is the elite level of play by one of the best guards in the country, Braden Smith.

A lot of signs point towards the Boilermakers, but how they played down the stretch concerns me. Yes, the win over Northwestern the other night was nice. But they lost three of four down the stretch, including a 97-93 loss to Wisconsin, 82-74 to Ohio State, and 76-74 to Michigan State.

• My Pick: Nebraska +4.5 at FanDuel

Purdue may look fantastic on paper, but they didn’t play as such a team during the home stretch playing as such. Doing so against Northwestern probably gave them some confidence, and the same can be said for the Cornhuskers after beating Iowa in OT (84-75).

I can’t ignore how good Purdue looks on paper, but Nebraska passes the eye test better than the Boilermakers.

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