Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Back the Hurricanes to Cover the Puck Line

With the New Jersey Devils back line struggling to defend their net, the Carolina Hurricanes will have the opportunity to secure a sizable win in regulation and cover the puck line. Before their puck drop takes place, we turn our attention towards the Toronto Maple Leafs team total over as their offense faces off against an Ottawa Senators back line who ranks below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

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New Jersey Devils vs. Carolina Hurricanes - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5 (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With a 3-1 lead over the New Jersey Devils, the Carolina Hurricanes are just one win away from moving on to the next round in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Carolina’s offense has had no issue with consistently pressuring New Jersey’s net this series as they comfortably lead the Devils in Expected Goals and in total Goals. In the last game of their series, the Carolina Hurricanes won 5-2 on the actual scoreboard and 3.19-2.02 in Expected Goals.

Carolina’s high level of play on offense has been a common theme throughout the year as their front line leads the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.57 Expected Goals per game. Even after trading away Mikko Rantanen to Dallas, the Hurricanes have been able to sustain their high level of play on offense as Logan Stankoven has done a respectable job at replicating his loss of production. As of writing, Stankoven averages 0.29 Expected Goals and 2.49 Shots on Goal per game.

With New Jersey conceding 4.47 Expected Goals Against in All Situations since the start of the playoffs, expect the Hurricanes to consistently pressure their net and set a scoring pace too fast for the Devils to keep up with. Especially with the Hurricanes capable of neutralizing the Devils front line as their defense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With clear advantages on both sides of the ice, expect the Hurricanes to cover the puck line and move on to the next round of the playoffs.

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Seth Jarvis Anytime Goalscorer (+175) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It was an underwhelming performance from Seth Jarvis in the last game of their series against New Jersey as the Hurricanes forward generated an Expected Goal of just 0.122. A sharp contrast from his regular season performance, especially after being moved to the same line as Sebastion Aho. Expect positive regression to swing back his way with Aho pulling defensive attention away from him, leading to wider shooting lanes and higher quality scoring opportunities for Jarvis to exploit.

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Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total Over 3.5 (+115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The Toronto Maple Leafs front line have excelled at pressuring the net this season as their offense currently ranks 11th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.18 Expected Goals per game. Their top line is arguably one of the most productive lines in the league as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies all average over 0.25 Expected Goals per game which gives Toronto the ability to open up the scoring early on in their contests and ramp up the tempo to their favor.

Against Ottawa, expect the Maple Leafs to continue to pressure the net at a heavy rate as they face off against a Senators defense who ranks 18th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. The Senators lack of coverage leaves Linus Ullmark exposed to high quality Shots on Goal which forces the former Vezina Trophy winner to consistently shift across the crease in an attempt to wall them off. Even with Ullmark playing at a high level, expect the Senators goalie to crumble against the Maple Leafs pressure.

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Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It has been a quiet series for the former team USA captain as Auston Matthews has only scored one goal in the first four games of their series against Ottawa. Heading into game five, positive regression looms large as Matthews averages over 0.60 Expected Goals per game. Primarily with the Senators back line struggling to stay in front of the puck as this opens up wider gaps in coverage for Matthews to exploit to help set up higher quality Shots on Goal at their net.

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