Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Expect Connor Hellebuyck to Round Back Into Form

With the St. Louis Blues still struggling to generate high quality Shots on Goal, expect the Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck to round back into form and hold them under their team total. Before that takes place, we target another team total in the contest between Washington and Montreal as the Capitals offense has the opportunity to light up the scoreboard by consistently pressuring a Canadiens defense who grades out poorly in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

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St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

St. Louis Blues Team Total Under 2.5 (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a rough series for Connor Hellebuyck as the Presidents’ Trophy winners star goalie is currently averaging an astonishing 4.24 Goals Against per game and a .817 Save Percentage. A stunning drop off from his regular season performance as Hellebuyck is projected to win his second straight Vezina Trophy award after he finished the year averaging just 2.01 Goals Against per game and a .925 Save Percentage.

While his low level of play is worth noting, his recent performance may be an anomaly due to the small sample size. Hellebuyck still receives a high level of support from his back line as the Winnipeg Jets defense currently leads all playoff contenders in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.21 Expected Goals Against per game. With the Jets consistently smothering the St. Louis Blues shot attempts, expect Hellebuyck to wall off the low quality Shots on Goal and hold them under their team total.

Especially with St. Louis lacking the playmakers needed to stretch out their coverage as only four Blues average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game with Jordan Kyrou the only player who averages more than 0.30. Their lack of versatility allows the Jets defense to sit back in coverage which drastically reduces the width and quality of the Blues shooting lanes. Should Winnipeg’s back up goalie Eric Comrie get the start in net instead of Hellebuyck, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Justin Faulk Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-155) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, expect the Blues to fail to break through the Jets coverage as they lack the versatility needed to open up shooting lanes. That spells potential disaster for Justin Faulk as the Blues defenseman already struggles with generating high quality shot attempts from the blue line as he enters the contest averaging 0.08 Expected Goals and 1.59 Shots on Goal per game. Barring a broken play or turnover, expect Faulk’s shot attempts to be halted before reaching the net.

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Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Washington Capitals Team Total Over 3.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After winning game four against Montreal 5-2, the Washington Capitals have the opportunity to carry over their momentum into game five and close out the series as they face off against a Canadiens defense who continues to severely underwhelm in coverage. Montreal’s lack of defensive production was a consistent thorn in their side throughout the regular season as their back line currently ranks 30th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.47 Expected Goals Against per game.

Their lack of coverage puts Washington in a favorable position to light up the scoreboard as the Capitals offense ranks sixth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations and fifth in 5-on-5 Play. Especially with Sam Montembeault failing to give Montreal the individual production they need to help mask their struggles on defense as the Canadiens starting goalie averages nearly three Goals Against per game. Expect Washington to continue to pressure their net at a heavy rate and clear the over on their team total.

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Alexander Ovechkin Anytime Goalscorer (+110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After failing to find the back of the net in game four, positive regression looms large over Alexander Ovechkin as the future hall of famer excels at pressuring the net. As of writing, Ovechkin averages 0.48 Expected Goals and 3.65 Shots on Goal per game. With the Canadiens back line struggling in coverage as their near dead last mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates, expect Ovechkin to continue to generate high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate and score his fourth goal of the series.

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