With the Washington Capitals back line struggling in coverage, the Carolina Hurricanes high powered offense have a great opportunity to clear the over on their team total as they excel at pressuring the net. Later in the night, expect a low scoring affair between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights as both defenses grade out very well in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and receive a high level of individual production from their goaltending.
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The Carolina Hurricanes front line have been in a tier of their own this season as they finished the year ranked first overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Since the start of the postseason, the Hurricanes have been able to sustain their high level of play as they currently lead all playoff contenders in Expected Goals For with an average of 4.72 Expected Goals per game. In their series against New Jersey in the first round of the playoffs, the Hurricanes outscored the Devils 19-11.
Even after trading away Mikko Rantanen to the Dallas Stars at the trade deadline, the Hurricanes offense still possess more than enough skill players to stretch out opposing back lines as six skaters currently average over 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Their versatility will continue to be on full display in game two of their series against Washington as they face off against a Capitals back line who struggles to defend their net as their league average mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates.
Even with Washington’s starting goaltender Logan Thompson giving them a high level of individual production, the Vezina Trophy contender will be forced to consistently shift across the crease with the Hurricanes peppering the net from multiple angles. This increases the chances of a gap opening up beside Thompson, especially with his back line struggling to smother Carolina’s shooting lanes. Should the Hurricanes team total move up to a flat three across the board, then reduce the size of your wager.
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After being moved to the same line as Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis has been able to generate Expected Goals at a higher rate as his center helps pull defensive attention away from him. This increases the width of his shooting lanes with less traffic between him and the net, as well as the quality of his Shots on Goal. With the Capitals back line struggling to stay in front of the puck, expect Jarvis to consistently pressure their net and score his first goal of the series and third goal in the playoffs.
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After making the switch from Stuart Skinner to Calvin Pickard, the Edmonton Oilers have received a major boost in defensive production as the backup goalie grades out better in average Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage. Even though his marks in net have ticked down since the start of the playoffs, Pickard has still outplayed Skinner as the former starting goalie averaged 6.11 Goals Against per game and a .810 Save Percentage in his two starts.
Pickard is also in a great position to recapture the same success he had throughout the regular season as he plays behind a back line who ranks second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Factor in the Vegas Golden Knights defense also ranking top-10 in Expected Goals Against and Thursday’s contest between the two Western Conference foes will shape out to be a defensive slugfest. Escalator bet the full game under by placing smaller wagers on the alternate totals.
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With the Golden Knights back line excelling in coverage, Edmonton’s Evan Bouchard will struggle to generate Shots on Goal from the blue line. Especially with the Oilers defenseman already failing to create high quality shot attempts as Bouchard averages just 0.16 Expected Goals per game. Expect Bouchard to continue to struggle with weaving the puck through the Golden Knights traffic in front of their net, resulting in a low amount of Shots on Goal.
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