With Winnipeg’s goaltending struggling to play at a competitive level, the Dallas Stars front line have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard for the second straight contest in their series against the Jets. This shades value towards the full game over, especially with the Stars back line still grading out poorly in Expected Goals Against in All Situations which increases Winnipeg’s chances of generating high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate.
After building a strong case for winning his second straight Vezina Trophy award, the Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck has struggled to carry over his success into the playoffs as the star goalie is averaging 3.51 Goals Against per game and a .848 Save Percentage in his 10 outings. A stunning low level of play after leading the league in average Goals Against per game in the regular season, especially with his back line still ranking near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Against Dallas, Hellebuyck’s struggles in net are poised to persist as he gets the unfortunate favor of walling off an offense who generates high quality scoring opportunities at a consistent rate. As of writing, the Stars offense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.29 Expected Goals per game. Their versatility makes it easy for them to create wider shooting lanes as seven players average over 0.25 Expected Goals per game while four of them average over 0.35.
On the other side of the ice, the Winnipeg Jets front line will have the opportunity to keep pace with Dallas as they face off against a Stars back line who ranks 17th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.09 Expected Goals Against per game. Their lack of coverage leaves their net exposed to high quality Shots on Goal, decreasing Jake Oettinger’s chances of consistently walling them off. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game over by sprinkling smaller wagers on the alternate totals.
Mikko Rantanen has had no issue with scoring against Winnipeg as the Stars forward has scored a combined four goals in the first three games of their series. Throughout the regular season, Rantanen has been able to pressure the net at a consistent rate as he currently averages 0.44 Expected Goals and 2.59 Shots on Goal per game. With his linemates spacing out the Jets back line with their versatility and providing him with higher quality shooting lanes, expect Rantanen to score his fifth goal of the series.
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