With their backs against the wall, the Carolina Hurricanes have managed to keep their Stanley Cup hopes alive by beating the Florida Panthers 3-0 in game four of the Eastern Conference Finals. More impressive yet, their result in Expected Goals actually indicates that their win was even more dominant than what the final score says. With momentum on their side, expect the Hurricanes offense to sustain their high level of play and take the series into a game six.
Even though Carolina lost the first three games of their series against Florida, their offense was able to pressure the Panthers net at an aggressive rate. Positive regression finally swung their way in game four as the Hurricanes went on to win the contest in comfortable fashion. Not only did Carolina win 3-0 on the actual scoreboard, but they also won 4.76-1.45 in Expected Goals. Even if you take away their two empty net goals, the Hurricanes still generated an Expected Goal of 2.84.
Their latest performance mirrored what we saw throughout the regular season as the Hurricanes led the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.57 Expected Goals per game. Their spread out attack forces opposing back lines to stretch out their coverage which creates higher quality shooting lanes for the Hurricanes to exploit. Should Carolina’s team total climb up to a flat three, then reduce the size of your wager.
Not only did the Hurricanes finally capitalize on their scoring opportunities, but Frederik Andersen was also able to shake out of his slump after struggling to wall off the Panthers offense earlier in the series. Andersen has been one of the better goalies in the playoffs this postseason as the Hurricanes goaltender is averaging 1.84 Goals Against per game and a .914 Save Percentage. Expect Andersen to sustain his high level of play and give the Hurricanes the protection they need to help secure the win in regulation.
With Sebastian Aho fresh off of a performance where he generated an Expected Goal of 1.54, the Florida Panthers back line may shade their coverage towards the center in an attempt to slow him down. This will open up wider gaps in coverage for Seth Jarvis to exploit which will drastically increase the quality of his Shots on Goal. For some more exposure, also place a wager on Jarvis to record more than 2.5 Shots on Goal as less coverage will also increase the chances of the puck reaching the net.
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