Even with Calvin Pickard expected to get the start in game five, the Florida Panthers offense should have no issue with lighting up the scoreboard as their versatility has proven to be too much for the Edmonton Oilers back line to contain. The Panthers offense were the more successful unit in game four as they managed to beat the Oilers in Expected Goals even though they lost the contest 5-4.
Since the start of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Florida Panthers offense have been as consistent as it gets as they have generated an Expected Goal higher than 3.00 in every game so far this series. A high level of play that we have been accustomed to as the Panthers front line ranks top-5 in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.47 Expected Goals per game. Their spread out attack forces opposing back lines to space out their coverage which creates higher quality shooting lanes for them to exploit.
On the other side of the ice, the Oilers back line have struggled to bottle up the Panthers offense as they continue to drop down the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Calvin Pickard expected to give their defense a boost in production, the Oilers goalie will still be vulnerable while having to wall off a high amount of Shots on Goal in front of his net. Should the Panthers team total climb up to 3.5, then reduce the size of your wager.
After being held scoreless in the first two games of the series, Sam Reinhart has started to get into a groove by scoring a goal in games three and four. The Panthers center has been one of their most consistent sources of scoring production this season as he currently leads the team in Expected Goals with an average of 0.47 per game. With the Oilers back line struggling to stay in front of the puck, expect Reinhart to continue to exploit their gaps in coverage and score his third goal of the series.
With Zach Hyman out with an injury, Connor McDavid has been tasked with shouldering a heavier workload to help replicate his linemate's loss of production. Even though he struggled to generate high quality shot attempts in game four as his low mark in Expected Goals indicates, McDavid was still aggressive in his efforts as he finished the contest with four Shots on Goal. Expect McDavid to continue to generate a high volume of shot attempts which increases his chances of clearing the over on this total.
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