With the Dallas Stars' front line generating high-quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate, their offense will have an opportunity to light up the scoreboard as they face off against the Columbus Blue Jackets who struggle in coverage. Shortly before their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the New York Islanders as their front line is in a position to put together a dominant performance in a matchup against the San Jose Sharks who severely underwhelm on defense.
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Since the start of the regular season, the Dallas Stars offense have been one of the more efficient units in the league as the Stanley Cup contenders rank seventh overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.61 Expected Goals per game. Their top two lines have had no issue with creating pressure in front of the opposing net as Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz both average an Expected Goal higher than 0.70.
In a favorable matchup against Columbus, the Stars' offense will be able to generate high-quality shot attempts at a consistent rate as they face off against a Blue Jackets defense who ranks dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Elvis Merzlikins averaging a Save Percentage of .920, the Blue Jackets' goalie will struggle to sustain his high level of play with his back line conceding a high volume of shots towards his net.
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Speaking of Robertson, the Stars forward has managed to play at a very high level this season as he is currently averaging 0.79 Expected Goals and 4.60 Shots on Goal per game. With his linemates pulling defensive attention away from him with their own individual production, this will open up wider gaps in the Blue Jackets' coverage which will drastically increase the quality of Robertson’s Shots on Goal.
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Like the Stars, the New York Islanders' front line have also excelled at pressuring the net as their offense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Their versatility has played a major role in their success as six players average an Expected Goal higher than 0.25. Their playmaking stretches opposing back lines thin which opens up higher quality shooting lanes for their offense to exploit.
With the San Jose Sharks' defense failing to play at a competitive level as their near dead last mark in Expected Goals Against indicates, the Islanders' offense will have a great opportunity to score at a high rate. Especially with Alex Nedeljkovic struggling in net as the Sharks goalie is averaging 3.69 Goals Against per game. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Islanders team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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After a slow start to the year, Anthony Stolarz has seen his odds to win the Vezina Trophy award decline as the Toronto goalie has struggled to play at a competitive level. Fortunately for Stolarz, positive regression looms large as he faces off against a New Jersey Devils offense who ranks below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Should the Devils' team total drop down to 2.5, then reduce the size of your wager.
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