With the Chicago Blackhawks back line severely underwhelming in coverage, positive regression looms large over the Edmonton Oilers as their offense will have the opportunity to mask their low level of play on defense by lighting up the scoreboard. Before their puck drop takes place, we turn our attention towards the Tampa Bay Lightning as their defense faces off against the Philadelphia Flyers who struggle to generate pressure in front of the net.
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It has been a rough first half of the year for the Chicago Blackhawks as they are currently 19-19-7 and in 25th place in the Presidents’ Trophy standings. Their low level of play on defense has played a major role in their struggles this season as their back line ranks 25th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.22 Expected Goals Against per game.
Unfortunately for the Blackhawks, their struggles on defense are poised to persist as they face off against the Edmonton Oilers who reside near the top of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Even with Spencer Knight playing at a very high level, the Oilers pressure will have the Blackhawks goalie constantly scrambling which will open up wider gaps beside him. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Oilers team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate overs.
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Since the start of the regular season, Zach Hyman has been able to pressure the net at a high rate as he is averaging 0.60 Expected Goals and 2.96 Shots on Goal per game. With the Blackhawks forced to shade their coverage towards Connor McDavid, expect Hyman to continue to take advantage of the shooting lanes his linemate provides and generate high quality shot attempts in front of the crease for the full duration of the contest.
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After failing to play at a competitive level on offense last year, the Philadelphia Flyers have carried over their struggles into this season as they currently rank in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their lack of versatility has been a constant thorn in their side as only five players on the active roster averages more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
In a matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning, expect the Flyers to continue to underwhelm on offense as they face off against a back line who ranks in the top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.94 Expected Goals Against per game. Especially with Andrei Vasilevskiy anchoring their net as the former Vezina Trophy winner is averaging 2.33 Goals Against per game and a .913 Save Percentage. If Jonas Johansson gets the start instead, then reduce the size of your wager.
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Even when receiving minimal support from his linemates, Cole Caufield has still been able to thrive as the Montreal Canadiens forward is averaging 0.40 Expected Goals and 2.84 Shots on Goal per game. With the Vancouver Canucks back line ranking dead last in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots, Caufield will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal by exploiting their gaps in coverage which increases his chances of finding the back of the net.
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