Even while dealing with injuries, the Washington Capitals have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard on Tuesday night as they face off against the Montreal Canadiens who struggle to defend their net. Shortly after their puck drop takes place, we turn our attention towards the Detroit Red Wings as their back line battles it out against the Boston Bruins who generate Shots on Goal at a low rate.
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Over the past few weeks of play, the Washington Capitals have seen their odds to win the Presidents’ Trophy plummet as they are currently 4-5-1 in their last ten games and in 12th place in the overall standings. While their defense has struggled to play at a competitive level, their offense has thrived as the Capitals rank fourth in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.34 Expected Goals per game.
Luckily for the Capitals, they have a great opportunity to get back in the win column on Tuesday night as they face off against the Montreal Canadiens who reside in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Jakub Dobes struggling to recapture the same success he had earlier in the year as the Canadiens goalie is averaging over three Goals Against per game and a .889 Save Percentage.
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Even in the tail end of his career, Alexander Ovechkin has been able to create high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate as the Capitals future hall of famer is averaging 0.41 Expected Goals per game. With the Canadiens back line severely underwhelming in coverage as previously mentioned, as well as Tom Wilson sitting out with an injury, expect Ovechkin to take advantage of his heavier workload and generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal which increases his chances of scoring.
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While Detroit’s front line have hogged the spotlight, their back line has quietly been very productive as the Red Wings defense ranks above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With their back line smothering opposing shot attempts, John Gibson is able to consistently wall them off as the Red Wings goalie is averaging just 2.75 Goals Against per game.
Heading into Tuesday night, expect the Red Wings back line to build on their momentum as they face off against the Boston Bruins who rank near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals For in 5-on-5 Play. Especially with the Bruins lacking the playmaking that is needed to stretch out their coverage as only three players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Bruins team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate unders at the best available odds.
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Since the start of the regular season, Connor McDavid has been able to pressure the net at a high rate as the Edmonton Oilers center is averaging 0.59 Expected Goals and 3.82 Shots on Goal per game. With the Nashville Predators struggling to protect the crease as their below league average mark in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots indicates, expect McDavid to continue to create high quality scoring opportunities in front of the net and score his 31st goal of the season.
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