Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over Connor Hellebuyck

With Winnipeg’s back line struggling to give Connor Hellebuyck the coverage he needs to keep a clean sheet, negative regression looms large over the Jets goalie as he faces off against the Tampa Bay Lightning who excel at pressuring the net. At the same time as their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Montreal Canadiens as they battle it out against the Colorado Avalanche who rank in the top-3 in most defensive metrics.

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Winnipeg Jets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total Over 3.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Heading into the second half of the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have built a strong case for being one of the best teams in the league as they are currently 33-14-4 and in first place in the Eastern Conference standings. Their high powered offense has played a major role in their success this year, rolling out a group who resides near the top of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations.

In a favorable matchup against Winnipeg, expect the Lightning to continue to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a Jets back line who ranks 23rd in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.20 Expected Goals Against per game. Even with Connor Hellebuyck anchoring their net, the Lightning’s versatility will force him to shift across the crease for the full duration of the contest which will open up wider shooting lanes on the outside for their front line to exploit.

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Nikita Kucherov Anytime Goal Scorer (+120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nikita Kucherov shoulder a heavier workload in the scoring department has been vital to the Lightning’s success on offense as he averages 0.49 Expected Goals per game. With his linemates stretching out the Jets coverage, Kucherov will be able to create higher quality Shots on Goal which increases his chances of beating Hellebuyck when he is scrambling across the crease.

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Montreal Canadiens - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Montreal Canadiens Team Total Under 3.5 (-160) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, the Colorado Avalanche have been able to hold on to their lead for first in the Presidents’ Trophy standings as they grade out very well on both sides of the ice. Their resurgence on defense has helped turn them into a well rounded contender as their back line ranks third in Expected Goals Against in All Situations while Scott Wedgewood is averaging just 2.14 Goals Against per game and a .918 Save Percentage.

Fortunately for the Avs, their back line will be able to build on their momentum against the Montreal Canadiens as they face off against an offense who ranks 20th in Expected Goals For From High Danger Shots. Especially with the Canadiens lacking the aggression that is needed to create gaps in the Avs coverage as only three players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Canadiens team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate unders.

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Nashville Predators vs. New Jersey Devils - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Jack Hughes Anytime Goal Scorer (+160) at BetMGM Sportsbook

When at full health, Jack Hughes has been one of the more dynamic centers in the league as the New Jersey Devils alternate captain is averaging 0.37 Expected Goals and 3.66 Shots on Goal per game. With the Nashville Predators struggling in coverage per their below league average mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, Hughes will be able to pressure the net at a heavier rate and score his 13th goal of the season.

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