In a daunting matchup against the Montreal Canadiens, negative regression looms large over Ilya Sorokin as he faces off against a front line who excels at pressuring the net. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Philadelphia Flyers as they battle it out against the New York Rangers who generate Shots on Goal at a very low rate.
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The Montreal Canadiens kick off Thursday night’s slate of games with a conference matchup against the New York Islanders.
After severely struggling on offense last year, the Montreal Canadiens have been able to round back into form this season as they currently rank above league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their top two lines have played a major role in their success as Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafovsky all average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
In a favorable matchup against the New York Islanders, the Canadiens front line will have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a defense who resides near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Ilya Sorokin in net, the Canadiens ability to pressure the crease will force him to pull away from the pipes, opening up larger gaps behind him.
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Speaking of Caufield, the Canadiens forward has been aggressive in his efforts of creating pressure as he is the only player on their active roster averaging more than three Shots on Goal per game. With Suzuki pulling defensive attention away from him, Caufield will be able to take advantage of the single coverage he receives and create higher quality Shots on Goal in front of the net.
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With Boston possessing an eight point lead over Philadelphia in the wildcard standings, the Flyers must take advantage of their matchup against the New York Rangers to remain in contention for the playoffs.
Since the start of the regular season, the New York Rangers have been abysmal as they are currently in 30th in the Presidents’ Trophy standings. Their lack of production on offense brings in a higher amount of variance into their contests, fielding a unit who ranks 28th in Expected Goals For in 5-on-5 Play with an average of 1.85 Expected Goals per game.
Heading into Thursday night, expect the Rangers struggles on offense to continue to persist as they face off against the Philadelphia Flyers who excel in coverage per their top-5 mark in Expected Goals Against while Dan Vlader averages just 2.47 Goals Against per game. To help increase your risk, escalator bet the Rangers team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate unders.
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After averaging nearly one goal per game in the Winter Olympics, Macklin Celebrini has a great opportunity to build on his momentum in his return to the ice with a favorable matchup against the Calgary Flames.
Even when receiving minimal support from his linemates, Macklin Celebrini has been able to play at a very high level as the San Jose Sharks center is averaging 0.38 Expected Goals per game. With the Calgary Flames ranking below league average in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots, Celebrini will be able to generate a higher volume of shots in the crease which increases his chances of scoring.
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