With Sergei Bobrovsky severely underwhelming in the Florida Panthers net this year, his struggles are poised to persist on Friday night as he faces off against the Detroit Red Wings who generate Shots on Goal at a high rate. Later in the night, negative regression looms large over the Minnesota Wild as they face off against the Vegas Golden Knights who excel in coverage.
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With Florida ten points back from Boston in the wildcard standings, the reigning Stanley Cup champions are in desperate need of rounding back into form should they want to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive.
After injuries hampered their play on the ice earlier in the year, the Florida Panthers have yet to shake off the rust as they are currently in 15th in the Eastern Conference standings. Their struggles can be pointed towards Sergei Bobrovsky’s regression as the Panthers goalie is averaging a stunning 3.13 Goals Against per game.
Unfortunately for Bobrovsky, his struggles in net will continue to be a thorn in the Panthers side as they face off against the Detroit Red Wings who rank above league average in Expected Goals For From High Danger Shots. With the Panthers back line also underwhelming in coverage, the Wings will be able to pressure the net at a higher rate, forcing Bobrovsky to scramble which will open up wider shooting lanes beside him.
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Since the start of the regular season, Dylan Larkin has been able to create high quality scoring opportunities, averaging 0.46 Expected Goals per game. With the Panthers struggling to face guard, Larkin will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal in front of the crease, increasing his chances of scoring.
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After going 4-5-1 in their last ten games, the Vegas Golden Knights must take advantage of their favorable matchup against Minnesota if they want to hold on to their lead for first in the Pacific division standings.
Heading into the final stretch of the season, the Vegas Golden Knights are in control of their own destiny in regard to winning the Pacific as they currently possess a one point lead for first. Their high level of play on defense has played a major role in their success, leading the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
With the Minnesota Wild struggling to create high quality Shots on Goal per their below league average mark in Expected Goals For in All Situations, the Golden Knights will be able to stretch out their back line to help smother their forwards and lessen the quality of their shot attempts. For some more exposure, escalator bet the Wild team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate unders at the best available odds.
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With the Edmonton Oilers grading out poorly in most defensive metrics, the Carolina Hurricanes Seth Jarvis has a great opportunity to score by exploiting their struggles in coverage.
When Sebastian Aho is able to pull defensive attention towards him, Seth Jarvis has been able to take advantage of the single coverage he receives by averaging 0.40 Expected Goals per game. With the Edmonton Oilers ranking 28th in Expected Goals Against in 5-on-5 Play, Jarvis will be able to consistently blitz through their back line and pressure the net for the full duration of the contest.
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