Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction: Massive Match in Title Race

• Arsenal are the Premier League leaders as they go into their final game of 2025

• Aston Villa are in extraordinary form as they eye an unlikely title tilt

• Who will come out on top when these two teams meet at the Emirates Stadium?

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Odds

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My +330 Pick for Arsenal vs. Aston Villa 

Go for a draw in this huge clash in north London. Arsenal are favorites with the best online sportsbooks, but Aston Villa can get something from their latest trip to the Emirates Stadium.

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Arsenal Have Chance to Open Six-Point Lead Over Opponents

On each of the last two weekends, Arsenal have found themselves under pressure at kick-off. Manchester City played before the Gunners in the rounds of fixtures before and after Christmas, so by the time Arsenal took to the field they were second in the Premier League standings. On both occasions, Mikel Arteta’s men have responded by taking care of their own business.

First came a 1-0 victory over Everton which was more dominant than the scoreline suggests. On Saturday, meanwhile, Arsenal were cruising at 2-0 up against Brighton & Hove Albion, who barely got a sniff in the first hour or so. But Arsenal grew jittery after Brighton halved the deficit, and in the end it took a wonderful save from David Raya to deny the Seagulls an equalizer.

Arsenal have been the Premier League’s standout performers over the first 18 gameweeks. They have been the most dominant, coherent and complete team in the division up to this point. Yet their lead in top spot is slender: Manchester City are two points back and Aston Villa are three behind. And Arsenal are still vulnerable to nerves setting in. Having finished as runners-up for three seasons on the bounce, the Gunners are desperate to get over the line this term - maybe too desperate. 

“[I’m] very happy with the performance, individually and collectively, so dominant,” Arteta said after the Brighton win. “We were a big threat, so very pleased with all of that. But the margins should have been much bigger. I mean, with the amount of situations, chances, open chances that we generated through the game, it should never be 2-1. But that's the Premier League, that's the step that we have to make.”

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Aston Villa’s Remarkable Form Has Raised Title Hopes

What a run Aston Villa are on. A come-from-behind 2-1 victory over Chelsea on Saturday was impressive in its own right, but it is even more so when you consider the wider context. Villa have now won 11 of their last 12 Premier League assignments. In all competitions, they have triumphed in nine successive fixtures. Remarkably, each of those wins has been by a one-goal margin.

Unai Emery’s side have a remarkable knack for hanging in games and then finding a way to edge out their opponents. That was certainly the case on Saturday. Chelsea could have been three goals to the good by the hour mark, but they did not take their chances and were punished when Villa improved after a triple substitution on the hour mark.

There is no doubt that the Villans have had some good fortune at times. Expected goals difference is a statistic which measures the quality of chances a team creates and concedes. Villa rank a lowly 15th in the league on that datapoint. That is below the likes of Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Everton.

It would be wrong, however, to rely on luck as the sole explanation. Villa are a supremely well-coached team. Their attacking players would no doubt point out that their overperformance of xG is indicative of brilliant finishing, not fortune. And the goalkeeper Emi Martinez would argue that his own shot-stopping skills are the main reason why Villa have conceded fewer goals than the underlying numbers suggest they should have.

It is debatable whether Villa have the staying power to remain in the title hunt, but it is undeniable that they are part of the conversation as things stand. Emery’s team cannot go top on Tuesday, but they would move level on points with the league leaders with a victory in north London. That is quite the prize on offer in Villa’s final fixture of the year.

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Arsenal and Aston Villa May Share the Spoils at the Emirates

The Emirates Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for Aston Villa in recent years. They won 2-0 at Arsenal’s ground in 2023/24 to derail their opponents’s title tilt. Last season, they fought back from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Arteta’s men, again harming their championship ambitions.

Arsenal are bound to have more of the ball on Tuesday. They will probably be on top for much of the game, especially in the first half. But there is something about this Villa team, which possesses spirit and character in abundance. Even if they are 1-0 down, Villa will believe they can win. That belief is invaluable for a side fighting at the top of the table.

Still, Emery’s side may see their winning run come to an end here. There is a tendency to nitpick at Arsenal, but their status as one of Europe’s best teams is not up for debate. The Champions League table would suggest they are the preeminent outfit on the continent right now.

A draw therefore looks like the obvious pick for Tuesday’s titanic tussle at the Emirates. Both Arsenal and Villa may have to settle for a point in this one.

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How to Watch Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

• Teams: Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

• Location: Emirates Stadium, London, England

• Date and Time: Tuesday 30th December, 3.15PM ET

• How to Watch: Peacock Premium