Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction: Emery’s Side Continue Title Tilt

• Aston Villa have emerged as unlikely Premier League title contenders

• Manchester United are targeting a top-four finish under Ruben Amorim

• Will either of these teams emerge victorious at Villa Park on Sunday?

Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Odds

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My +110 Pick for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United 

Back Aston Villa to beat Manchester United on Sunday. Unai Emery’s side can maintain their sensational form by putting the Red Devils to the sword.

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Aston Villa Riding Crest of Wave Despite Imperfect Numbers

After a tough start to the season, Aston Villa fans feared the worst. Their club had not been as busy in the summer transfer market as they would have liked, leaving Unai Emery with a very similar squad to last season. Villa were slow out of the traps, failing to win any of their first five Premier League games, and failing to score in four of those.

Fast forward to the middle of December and the mood at Villa Park could hardly be more different. Emery’s men are in extraordinary form. Ahead of Sunday's clash with Manchester United, they have won 10 of their last 11 top-flight contests. No one - not Arsenal, nor Manchester City - comes close to matching that record.

As a result, Villa have surged up the standings. From the bottom three in August, they are now in the top three. A three-point gap stands between them and Arsenal in top spot. They have beaten the Gunners and Manchester City over the past couple of months, demonstrating that Villa are not merely flat-track bullies.

How far can they go? There has been excited chatter of a potential title tilt of late, but the bookies rate them as distant third-favorites, some way behind Arsenal and City. The principal reason for that is Villa’s mediocre underlying numbers, namely expected goals difference.

That statistic essentially ranks teams by the quality of chances they create versus the quality of chances they concede. Arsenal are top, City are second and Villa are way down in 14th. That suggests their current form is unsustainable.

Of course, Villa could improve those underlying numbers. Or they could continue to outperform them for the rest of the season. For now at least, the real table shows that Villa are in the title conversation.

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Manchester United Making Progress but Long Way to Go

Incidentally, Manchester United are third in the expected goals difference table, yet only sixth in the real standings. That is because they have conceded more goals than you would expect based on the chances they have given up.

Defense is definitely the problem for United. Their limp attack was the bigger issue last term, but the Red Devils are much improved in that area. New signings Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha have made a difference, as has the return to full fitness of Mason Mount, who has long been underrated.

Only Manchester City have scored more goals than United heading into the weekend. But only five sides have conceded more. United have clearly made strides forward since last term, but at present their defensive brittleness is holding them back.

For evidence, look no further back than Monday. United played some thrilling soccer and scored four goals against Bournemouth. Yet they also conceded four, and thus left Old Trafford with one point rather than three. Not for the first time, their defensive frailties cost them, although Ruben Amorim also highlighted a lack of accurate finishing in the final third.

“It was a good performance but we need to be more clinical because we created so many chances,” he said. “There were opportunities for both sides. We created more. We need to find ways of closing the games because this happened many times. That's part of the process. We try to do things the best we can but in some moments it's not enough.”

United are in a decent position as Christmas approaches. They are only two points outside the top four and Amorim has succeeded in getting the fans back on side. Yet the manager knows better than anyone that there is still plenty to do before United get back to where they want to be.

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Aston Villa Are the Premier League’s Form Team Right Now

Manchester United rank higher in the away table than the home one, but they are about to face a team that has won six league games on the bounce on home turf, including against the two best sides in the division.

Aston Villa have the bit between their teeth right now, and they also have a useful knack for finding a way to win. Their last five triumphs in the league have all been by a one-goal margin. Last weekend they came from behind to defeat West Ham United. This is not an easy side to beat.

Indeed, United will find it difficult to do so on Sunday. They should be able to create chances against Villa, but recent matches suggest they will struggle to deny their opponents at the other end. Amorim will also have to do without Amad Diallo and Mbeumo, two of his best players, who have departed for the Africa Cup of Nations.

Villa will not be able to keep this sort of form going for the entire season, but we expect them to emerge triumphant against United in the final Premier League game this side of Christmas. Back Emery’s team to come out on top in this tantalising festive fixture.

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How to Watch Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

• Teams: Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

• Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England

• Date and Time: Sunday 21st December, 11.30AM ET

• How to Watch: NBC