Sunderland vs. Manchester City Prediction: Pep Guardiola’s Side Seek Another Win

• Manchester City have been putting the pressure on Arsenal in recent weeks

• Sunderland have had a magnificent first half of the Premier League season

• Can the Black Cats upset Manchester City on New Year’s Day?

Sunderland vs. Manchester City Odds

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My +275 Pick for Sunderland vs. Manchester City 

Go for Manchester City to win by one goal. Sunderland will test Pep Guardiola’s side, but the visitors should get the job done by a narrow margin.

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Manchester City Not Perfect but in a Promising Position

Had they been offered their present position before a ball had been kicked this season, Manchester City would have gladly taken it. Last summer, the consensus was that Liverpool and Arsenal were the two likeliest Premier League champions, with City widely ranked as third-favorites after their downturn last term. But with the midway point of the campaign on the horizon, City are only two points adrift of top spot.

Arsenal have been the most impressive performers in the division up this point, but City are doing a good job of applying pressure. They have greater experience and knowhow in their ranks than Arsenal, who have not won the title since 2004. That could be a factor in the second half of the campaign, especially as the Gunners are vulnerable to nerves at the best of times.

City did not have everything their own way last time out. Nottingham Forest held their own for large portions of the game at the City Ground. The score was 1-1 going into the closing stages, only for Rayan Cherki to break Forest hearts by finding the back of the net in the 83rd minute. Not for the first time this term, one of City’s match-winners came up trumps when they needed it.

“We know a lot of clubs suffer here,” Guardiola said in a post-match interview. “From what I heard Nottingham Forest at home is always difficult, and yes, I felt it as well. It's a very important win and we are on the hunt.”

With Arsenal and Aston Villa doing battle in a first-versus-third clash on Tuesday, City may have the chance to go top on New Year’s Day - they will do so if the Gunners drop points against Unai Emery’s charges. Guardiola and his staff will no doubt be watching that match at the Emirates Stadium with interest.

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Sunderland Give Hope to All Promoted Championship Clubs 

In each of the last two full Premier League seasons, the three promoted clubs have gone straight back down. That will not be happening this term. Burnley are in the bottom three and Leeds United are involved in the relegation battle, but barring a catastrophic collapse in 2026, Sunderland will be a top-flight team again next season.

Regis Le Bris’s side have exceeded all expectations so far. Promoted via the play-offs last season, they were heavily active in the summer transfer market in a bid to strengthen their roster for the challenge ahead. Sunderland spent more than $200m on new players, and that approach has been vindicated by their results over the first 18 gameweeks.

After a 1-1 draw with Leeds United on Sunday, the Black Cats sit seventh in the standings. They have collected 28 points already, which means they probably only need eight more for survival. Not that Sunderland are looking at the drop zone right now. They have a 15-point buffer above the dreaded dotted line, compared to a four-point deficit to the top four.

Sunderland’s revamped team gelled quickly. Le Bris deserves credit for that, and for his promotion of an aggressive, physical style of play that makes his team awkward opponents, especially at the Stadium of Light, where they remain unbeaten. 

“It is really positive that we are still unbeaten on home soil, especially during tough moments,” Le Bris said on Sunday. “When it is a bit harder, it is important to stay consistent and maintain the level of energy. It is really important to have this sequence at home. The dressing room is disappointed right now, and that shows their desire to win.”

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Manchester City to Eke Out Another Victory at Start of 2026

Sunderland have made the Stadium of Light a fortress this season, with Arsenal the only other team yet to taste defeat in front of their own supporters. Manchester City are therefore in for a tricky test when they travel to the northeast of England on the first day of 2026.

City will dominate possession in this match, but Sunderland’s direct play and set-piece threat will give their illustrious opponents something to think about. The Black Cats like to get the ball from back to front quickly, so City must ensure they are switched on when possession changes hands.

It will not be easy for Guardiola’s side to emerge triumphant, but we expect them to find a way. In Cherki, Phil Foden and Erling Haaland, they are not short of difference-makers in the final third. Even when they are not at their imperious best, City often manage to get over the line.

From a betting point of view, we like the look of an away win by a one-goal margin on New Year’s Day. This promises to be a tight affair, but City’s extra quality should ultimately swing the match in their favor as they bid to keep the heat on Arsenal.

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How to Watch Sunderland vs. Manchester City

• Teams: Sunderland vs. Manchester City

• Location: Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England

• Date and Time: Thursday 1st January, 3.00PM ET

• How to Watch: USA Network