Winter Olympics 2026 USA Hockey Team Odds: Will Injuries Hold the United States Back?

After losing to Canada in last year’s Four Nations Face Off, USA will have the opportunity to get their revenge in the Winter Olympics by nearly matching their rivals' output at all three levels of the ice.

While the talent on paper is eye-popping, injuries are worth monitoring as their top players have all been affected at some point in the regular season. Should this slow them down, then USA may be held to another second-place finish.

Winter Olympics Men's Ice Hockey - Gold Medal Winner Odds

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High Expectations for the USA's Goaltending

While Canada hogs the spotlight for fielding one of the best overall rosters in the Winter Olympics, the USA's goaltending may be the strongest singular unit as they possess three goalies who are all capable of neutralizing an offense on any given night. Reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck headlines the USA's star-studded group, followed by the Dallas Stars Jake Oettinger and Boston Bruins Jeremy Swayman.

Even though Hellebuyck has regressed this year, his struggles can be pointed towards Winnipeg’s lack of coverage as the Jets' defense ranks 22nd in Expected Goals Against in All SItuations. Even when receiving minimal support from his back line, Hellebuyck has still been able to play at a competitive level as he is averaging 2.79 Goals Against per game and a .900 Save Percentage.

With the USA's back line a major step up in quality of defense, Hellebuyck will get the benefit of remaining fairly still in net, which will help tighten the gaps beside him. The USA's suffocating coverage will also drastically lessen the quality of opposing Shots on Goal, making it easier for Hellebuyck to wall them off and keep a clean sheet for the majority of the contest.

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Injuries Lower Team USA's Ceiling

As alluded to earlier, injuries have reared their ugly head over the USA's top stars this year, with multiple forwards having to sit out at some point during the season. Matthew Tkachuk, for example, was unable to make his return to the ice until January 19th as he spent the first half of the year recovering from a torn abductor. While his current average in Expected Goals suggests he has been able to shake off the rust, any form of regression will lower USA’s ceiling.

Jack Hughes has also been in and out of the lineup this year as the New Jersey Devils forward has been dealing with multiple injuries since the start of the regular season. When at full health, Hughes is one of the more aggressive scorers in the league as he averages 0.36 Expected Goals and 3.53 Shots on Goal per game.

Fortunately for Team USA, their supporting cast will be able to mask their potential loss of production should they reaggravate their injuries with Auston Matthews, Dylan Larkin, Jack Eichel, and Brady Tkachuk all able to generate pressure in front of the net at a very high rate. Should USA be able to stay healthy, then they are poised to make a deep run in the tournament.

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Final Verdict on USA Hockey Team at Winter Olympics

Even with injuries lingering over the USA's roster, it’s tough to ignore how well-rounded their lineup is, which will help reduce the amount of negative variance in their contests. Especially with Hellebuyck and Oettinger patrolling the net, keeping the score close enough for their offense to remain competitive should their injuries force them to get off to a slow start.

Unfortunately for the USA, the harsh reality is that Canada’s high-powered offense may overwhelm their back line, using their versatility to force their goaltending to scramble across the crease, which will widen the width of their shooting lanes. This makes the USA a pass in the gold medal market until brackets are released, making it vital they avoid Canada until the final round. If you want to place a wager now, then consider betting on the USA to medal at no higher than -300.

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