Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Aqueduct

Aqueduct will roll out a five stakes card on Saturday, headlined by four graded stakes on both dirt and turf. Leading the way will be the $400,000, Grade 2 Man O’ War Stakes. The historic turf race, run at 1 3/8-miles, has been won by numerous champions over the years, and in Far Bridge it has a classy favorite who could make a serious run at an eclipse award this season.

Other highlights of the afternoon include the local prep for next month’s Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. The Grade 3 Peter Pan has drawn an intriguing field of ten sophomore males hoping to prove they belong in the final leg of the Triple Crown. The Grade 2 Ruffian and the Grade 3 John A. Nerud round out the afternoon’s graded action  Without further ado, let's get to my analysis, top picks, and suggested wagers for an excellent day of racing from Aqueduct.

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Race #2 Man O’ War Stakes (Grade 2) $400,000 1 3/8-Miles Turf- 1:47pm EST

Twice a Grade 1 winner in 2024, Far Bridge will look to add another important score to his accomplishments when he headlines a compact field of five entered in Saturday’s $400,000 Man O’ War Stakes on the Aqueduct turf.

A 5-year-old son of the champion English Channel, Far Bridge returned to the races six weeks ago with a determined victory in the Grade 3 Pan American Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Trained by Christophe Clement, he has now won three of his last four. A three-time Grade 1 winner overall and closing in on $2 million in earnings, he stands out in this field from a class perspective.

The second choice on the morning line is Anglophile. Also a 5-year-old son of English Channel, he was a fast-closing third in the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland in his most recent start. It’s interesting to note that his most recent victory came in September of 2023 when he defeated Far Bridge in the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs.

Other contenders in the Man O’ War include Capture the Flag and Padiddle. The former broke through two starts back with a gate to wire victory in the Grade 2 Mac DIarmida Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The latter is an improving gelding who finished a solid third behind the favorite last time in the Pan American. As the class of the race, however, Far Bridge will be my top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Trifecta Part Wheel - Far Bridge over Padiddle over Anglophile and Capture the Flag = $20

• $10 Trifecta Part Wheel - Far Bridge over Anglophile and Capture the Flag over Padiddle = $20

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Race #7 John A. Nerud Stakes (Grade 3) $175,000 6-Furlongs Dirt- 4:40pm EST

Freshened since a romping allowance win in January, Whatchatalkinabout rates top billing against five other older male sprinters in the Grade 3 John A. Nerud Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday.

A stakes winning New York-bred, the lightly raced son of Dialed In returned from a year-long layoff last fall and ran a pair of sharp seconds before turning in a dominant performance four months ago. That afternoon he ran off by eight lengths against fellow state-breds in fast time. Given some time by trainer Wesley Ward after that big performance, he looks like the one they all have to beat in his first try against graded stakes company.

Chief among his opposition in the Nerud will be the graded stakes winning pair of Anarchist and Full Moon Madness. The latter is no stranger to graded stakes sprinting, having competed in big races all over the world. A multiple graded stakes winner, Anarchist may have tipped off his return to top form with a near miss last time in the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint at Oaklawn Park.

Full Moon Madness, on the other hand, is right at home at Aqueduct. Two starts back he earned his biggest career victory when winning the Grade 3 Tom Fool. Last out, he succumbed to a taxing pace in the Grade 2 Carter. A strong pace should happen again here. I am going to try to beat the favorite with Anarchist, who has shown plenty of class throughout his career. His last race was sneaky good. He will be my top pick.

My Play

• $20 Win & Place - Anarchist = $40

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Race #10 Ruffian Stakes (Grade 2) $200,000 1-Mile Dirt- 6:16pm EST

A deep and talented field of ten fillies and mares should make for a good betting race in Saturday’s Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes. My Mane Squeeze has been made the lukewarm 7-2 favorite in the one mile affair at Aqueduct.

A daughter of Audible, My Mane Squeeze likes to rally in one-turn races. She should get a solid pace to run at here with plenty of early speed signed on. The 4-year-old filly twice rallied to win graded stakes races at Churchill Downs last year. Trained by Mike Maker, she also sports a strong record at Aqueduct where she has won three of four tries.

Her competition in the Ruffian is many and includes Gun Song, a graded stakes winner who gave the champion Thorpedo Anna all she wanted in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes last fall, as well as Jody’s Pride, who is a two-time stakes winner at Aqueduct and just missed in the 2023 edition of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Three recent stakes winners Sterling Silver, Dazzling Move, and Headline Numbers should also get plenty of support. Of the three, Sterling Silver might be the most dangerous with her ability to come from behind. Overall, however, I think the morning line odds maker has the right horse favored. My Mane Squeeze is my top pick.

My Play 

• $50 Win - My Mane Squeeze = $50

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Race #11 Peter Pan Stakes (Grade 3) $200,000 1 1/8-Miles Dirt- 6:46pm EST

An impressive winner of the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct two starts back, Captain Cook will look to return to his winning ways on Saturday when he headlines a field of ten in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes.

A prep for next month’s Belmont Stakes, the Peter Pan should produce a starter or two for the final leg of the Triple Crown, and Captain Cook looks primed for a solid effort. He couldn’t quite keep up with Rodriguez last time in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, but he ran on well to finish fourth. With less talent and speed in this one, he should make his presence felt from the start for trainer Rick Dutrow.

The second choice on the morning line is the late-running Hill Road. After beginning his career in Ireland, the Quality Road colt rallied for third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his U.S. debut. He has only started once this year and ran a decent third in the Tampa Bay Derby. A moderate pace could hinder his chances on Saturday.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has two in the field and both are dangerous. Vassimo won his first two starts in Florida, but wasn’t quite good enough in two Kentucky Derby preps in Louisiana. Uncaged is an up and comer, who won his second start off the layoff last time over the Aqueduct main track. Getting the right race set-up in this one, Captain Cook is my top pick.

My Plays

• $5 Exacta Box - Captain Cook, Uncaged, and Hill Road = $30

• $5 Exacta Box - Captain Cook, Uncaged, and Lordship = $30

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