Breeders' Cup Classic Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks 2025: Sierra Leone and Fierceness Top $7 Million Race

Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds 2025

The following odds are by author Brian Zipse.

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My Top 5 Picks to Win the Breeders’ Cup Classic

1. Baeza

With the scratch of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Sovereignty, the Breeders’ Cup Classic has become a wide open race with numerous possible winners. The older horses are strong, but far from unbeatable. It could well be an excellent spot for the improving colt Baeza to step to the forefront. The youngest horse in the field, he could not get by either Sovereignty or Journalism while running very well in big races early in his career. Given a little bit of class relief last time, he made the most of the opportunity with an impressive win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). 

Finally getting over the hump should give him confidence as he comes to this huge test. Trained by the veteran John Shirreffs, I have always believed that the best was yet to come for this beautifully bred son of McKinzie and Puca. Now a more mature colt, he should be ready to give his best at his home base in Southern California. As the likely sixth choice in this deep field, he will offer excellent value. He is the top pick.

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2. Fierceness

The champion 2-year-old and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner of 2023 has come to Southern California three times in his career and ran very well each time. Last year in this race, he pressured a very fast early pace all the way and still managed to finish second behind Sierra Leone. Most recently, he bounced back from a dull effort at Saratoga to overcome early trouble and score an impressive victory in the Pacific Classic (G1). The win came at Del Mar and at the same 1 1/4 mile trip which he will see on Saturday. 

Although he has thrown in some poor efforts during his career, his ability to run his race every time in California for trainer Todd Pletcher is a big plus as he tackles his toughest test yet. With Contrary Thinking in the field, it will be up to Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez to keep Fierceness relaxed early and save his best for the top of the Del Mar stretch. His odds will not be as attractive as Baeza, but he is the one to beat in this strong field.

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3. Forever Young

This Japanese-based star twice came to the U.S. last year and while he ran well both times, he came up a little short when third in both the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. A glorious winner of the Saudi Cup (G1) early this year, he could not repeat that effort in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. Given rest after that, he has come back this fall an even bigger version than what we saw before his time off. With a good prep under his belt, the 4-year-old son of Real Steel should be ready to run his typical strong race. I do worry that the short stretch at Del Mar does not play to his strengths, but still anything but a solid effort would be a surprise.

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4. Sierra Leone

The 2024 3-year-old champion will look to end his career on his high note as he comes back to Del Mar to defend his strong victory in this race last year. He has only won once in four starts this year, but he has improved throughout the season for trainer Chad Brown and was a troubled second last time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). The son of Gun Runner always comes running with his rally, but often falls a little short in getting to the wire first. He will have his early pacesetter Contrary Thinking in the race to create solid early fractions. While he is a great bet to hit the board, I believe he will not get by them all this time around.

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5. Mindframe

The biggest wildcard of the field, this impressive son of Constitution lost his rider in the early stages of the Jockey Club Gold Cup after bumping. Before that, he won back-to-back Grade 1 races in Kentucky, including a win over Sierra Leone. He will get one last chance to prove he can beat the very best going 1 1/4 miles on Saturday. At his best, he can defeat any horse in the world on dirt, but without a solid prep it remains to be seen if he is coming into this race at his very best. The Pletcher barn likes this colt a lot, and a victory is a real possibility. He also could finish out of the money to no real surprise.

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My Picks for the Breeders’ Cup Classic - Best Bets to Make 

• $20 Win - Baeza and Fierceness ($40 wager)

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Baeza over Fierceness, Mindframe, Forever Young, and Sierra Leone ($40 wager)

• $10 Exacta Part Wheel - Fierceness over Baeza, Mindframe, Forever Young, and Sierra Leone ($40 wager)

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How to Watch the Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025

• Event: Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)

• Location: Del Mar

• Time: Saturday, November 1 at 6:25 PM ET

• How to Watch: NBC

• Purse: $7,000,000