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USMNT vs. Costa Rica Prediction: Crunch Clash in Knockout Stage

Published: June 27, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
6 min read
  • The USMNT found things easy in the group stage but this is a bigger test

  • Costa Rica will not be fearful of the CONCACAF Gold Cup hosts in any way

  • The USMNT will need to dig deep to advance to the semi-finals of the event

USMNT vs. Costa Rica Odds

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Match Result Odds
USMNT -182
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Draw +300
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Costa Rica +425
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USMNT vs Costa Rica Prediction Odds

USMNT vs. Costa Rica Pick

Choose a draw in this one. The USMNT may still get through, but it will not necessarily be within 90 minutes.

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USA Building Up Confidence but This Is a Tough Assignment

After those two friendly defeats by Turkey and Switzerland on the eve of the Gold Cup, many followers of the United States men's national team feared the worst. Mauricio Pochettino’s men were in poor form and they were about to enter the tournament with many of their key players missing. A year out from World Cup 2026, the USMNT did not appear to be in great shape.

That might still be the case, but the Stars and Stripes have at least managed to steady the ship over the last fortnight. Three victories in the group stage mean the USA have at least avoided the biggest embarrassment of all. Doubts remain, but there is a much more positive mood around the camp now than there was two weeks ago.

The USMNT breezed past Trinidad & Tobago on matchday one, winning 5-0 to get the ball rolling in style. They then edged out Saudi Arabia 1-0 in a much tighter encounter, before beating Haiti 2-1 to both maintain their 100 percent record at the competition and secure top spot in Group D.

The USMNT were probably the better team against Haiti, but they were far from perfect and the margin of victory was narrower than Pochettino would have liked. The winning goal did not arrive until the 78th minute, when Patrick Agyemang struck to give his team the lead again. Before that, Haiti were able to hang with the hosts.

"I think we're all happy from the first day,” Pochettino said. “Of course it was a tough moment with the two defeats against Turkey and Switzerland, but it was part of the process and the preparation. It is a new team that need to spend time together. Today, that time together paid off. For myself, I'm so happy and certainly for the players.

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Costa Rica Will Not Mind Playing the Role of Underdogs

Costa Rica will provide the opposition to the USMNT as the knockout stage of the Gold Cup begins this weekend. Make no mistake, this is a step up for Pochettino’s team, who are facing a genuine threat to their ambition of lifting the trophy. Costa Rica are not quite among the leading favorites with the best online sportsbooks, but they are not too far behind.

Los Ticos are three-time champions at this tournament, although they have not got their hands on the prize since 1989. In recent years they have tended to be eliminated at this very stage of the competition: Costa Rica have gone out in the quarter-finals in all but two of the last 10 editions of the Gold Cup.

To go one better this summer, Costa Rica must beat the home nation. That will not be easy, but the USMNT should be cautious of a team which proved to be the match of Mexico in the group phase.

Costa Rica kick-started their campaign with a thrilling 4-3 victory over Suriname. They then beat the Dominican Republic 2-1, before a 0-0 draw with Mexico sent them through as the runners-up in Group A. El Tri, who are the joint-favorites to win the Gold Cup, only finished above Costa Rica due to a narrow goal difference advantage.

We have a team capable of winning the tournament,” Costa Rica manager Miguel Herrera said this month. “We’re here to win it. The dream is alive, and it’s up to us to make it real. We have a squad that can compete with anyone. I wouldn’t be saying this if I didn’t see it reflected on the pitch. Technically, we’re in a good place. If we stay focused, we can go all the way.

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USA May Need to Go to Extra Time as They Target Semi-Finals

The USMNT are fancied to come out on top here and we think they will ultimately find a way through to the semi-finals. It will not necessarily be easy, though, with Costa Rica capable of giving the USA plenty to ponder throughout this game.

Los Ticos have mostly moved on from their golden generation which memorably reached the quarter-finals of World Cup 2014. Keylor Navas, the former Real Madrid goalkeeper, is still around, but the likes of Joel Campbell and Bryan Ruiz are not involved. 

Costa Rica are therefore not quite as strong as they once were, but they are still one of CONCACAF’s best teams and Herrera will do everything he can to mastermind a surprise victory this weekend.

In the end, the USMNT should come out on top. Playing on home soil will help and the USA do appear to have found a decent rhythm. In addition to that, Costa Rica’s defense looked vulnerable in their first two games of the tournament.

But in terms of the first 90 minutes, Costa Rica have what it takes to avoid defeat. Go for a draw in the betting market.

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How to Watch USMNT vs. Costa Rica

  • Teams: USMNT vs Costa Rica

  • Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

  • Date and Time: Sunday, June 29 at 7:00 PM ET 

  • How to Watch: FS1, TUDN, Univision

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Greg Lea WSN Contributors

Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
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