Best NRFI Bets Today: Can Hunter Dobbins Continue to Dazzle?

Hunter Davis went from being outside the Red Sox's Top 50 prospects in 2023 to joining the big league rotation in 2025. He has been fantastic across his first two starts, and he can keep that momentum rolling today. 

Below, we’ll explain why we are locking in this NRFI bet and a few others we like for today.

All odds used are taken from Caesars Sportsbook. If you’d like to create a new Caesars account to bet on MLB games this season, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens” offer.

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox - Bailey Ober vs. Hunter Dobbins (4:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Red Sox lineup has been among the best in the league, but they will run into a buzzsaw tonight in the form of Bailey Ober (3-1, 4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). After allowing eight runs in his first start, the 29-year-old is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Sox haven’t seen Ober in a couple of years, and didn’t do well against them when they did. Look for the Minnesota starter to impress, at least for the first time through this Boston lineup.

Boston starter Hunter Dobbins (2-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has looked sharp in the first two starts of his rookie season. The 25-year-old jumped up Boston’s prospect board last season and has been showing why in 2025. We expect him to do so again against a Minnesota lineup that has scored seven runs over its previous four games.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles - Kris Bubic vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (7:15 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook

This is a bet the books have priced wrong, and we’ll tell you why. Royals starter Kris Bubic (2-2, 2.25 ERA, 1.14) is coming off a rough outing against the Astros, but remains one of the top pitchers to start the 2025 season. He’ll be facing an Orioles team he didn’t allow an earned run against over 6 ⅔ innings. Combine that with the fact that he has yet to allow a first-inning score, and you can see why we are comfortable with this side of the wager.

The Orioles will turn to 35-year-old rookie Tomoyuki Sugano (3-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) to start tonight’s game. The Nippon star will see the Royals for the second time this season. He held Kansas City off the board until the sixth inning, allowing Baltimore to cruise to an 8-1 win. That start came on the road, and we expect him to repeat it at home, where he owns a 2.70 ERA.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees - Zack Littell vs. Ryan Yarbrough

This is probably the safest bet of the entire weekend. That is because Zack Littell (1-5, 5.03 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) will be on the mound for Tampa. The pitcher has begun to turn things around after an ugly start, but he has been far from perfect. Considering the Yankees have the best OPS in baseball and own a 1.070 OPS against Littell over 52 at-bats.

The Rays' lineup isn’t scaring anyone in 2025, but they will have an easy test on the mound in reliever Ryan Yarbrough (4.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). The former Ray has not settled in since joining the Yankees, and was hit hard by his old team just a couple of weeks ago. Tampa tagged him for two runs on six hits over just 2 ⅔ innings.

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• Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers - Luis Castillo vs. Patrick Corbin

The Mariners’ lineup has been a liability over the last few seasons, but not anymore. The team is batting .337 with a 1.024 OPS over the previous week. The hot streak has seen Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena start to wake up, making this lineup far more formidable. 

Don’t be fooled by Rangers’ starter Patrick Corbin’s  (2-1, 3.79 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) ERA. The 35-year-old has limited run damage, but is allowing a ton of traffic on the basepaths. The ERA isn’t uglier because his previous three starts have come against the A’s (twice) and the Angels. Expect him to falter early against a far better Mariners team tonight.

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